Current perceptions of the market

[kirispupis]

Thought I'd start (yet another) thread concerning your perceptions of the market. Although I'm still very new to this hobby, this year has seemed quite odd.

First, a number of the standard sellers I rely on have dried up. They were the source of the majority of my purchases last year and one in particular I ordered from nearly weekly. All three of them have posted very few coins this year, and whatever they've listed has been uninterested.

Second, there's been a severe drop in interesting coins overall. Last year there were typically 3-5 auctions at any one time with items I wanted, while lately it's been 0-1. At Leu, for example, I would typically put 10-25 coins on my watch list, then whittle them down to 4-10 over the auction until I bid on them in the live portion. This year I only had 2 on the initial list. Last year I purchased heavily from Roma at the beginning of the year and CNG at the end. I haven't participated in Roma at all this year and only one CNG auction outside of Triton, where I had zero wins. Overall, I'm just not seeing so many interesting coins.

Third, on coins where I have bid there's been tremendous competition. Perhaps there's someone more well-heeled who has my exact plan, because I've been destroyed on the coins I most wanted. For example, I had a major target at Leu and I bid over 2x the highest ever offered for the type and lost. Even on "lower" types I've been outbid more than I used to be. I've lost on a number of items where I won last year.

I've still been purchasing coins, but I look out more for rarities - even from cities I already have. Many coins are mis-attributed and sometimes research has revealed a nice nugget, such as those below. I've also branched out a bit in cities and added some interesting types. My per-coin price has plummeted. If I keep it up, my collection may wind up being worth what I paid. 🙂 

One interesting thing, though, is the one "common" coin I added recently was picked up for a decent price. It doesn't seem like all coin prices have gone up, but there's a definite increase for ugly but rare Greek bronzes.

What are your thoughts on the market?

Praxippos of Lapethos
circa 330-312 BCE
Æ 15mm, 2,38g
Head of Apollo left; [ΠΡ behind] /
Krater; [BA] to right
Tziambazis 49; BMC pl. XX, 2; Sear 5749; Traité II 1364, pl. CXXXVI

 

Skamandreia, Troas
350-300 BCE
Æ 9mm, 0,95g
Obv.: IΔH, Head of mountain nymph Ida
Rev.: S-K-A, grape bunch
SNG Cop - , BMC 79.4, Klein -

[AETHER]

I feel like the market for popular coins is strong, owls, Alexander's, Caesars , etc.  Since covid at least. I don't pay much attention, but just a general feeling.

[Roman Collector]

I haven't purchased much outside of the Antonine period (Imperial and provincial issues) over the past three years, so I can't comment about anything else, but the prices have doubled for even common reverse types with good eye appeal. I'm not talking FDC; I'm talking VF or thereabouts for silver and F for bronze. Even the most common Faustina I denarii routinely hammer for > $100, whereas these sorts of coins were available for $40-50 at auctions such as Savoca Blue three or four years ago. I can't think of the last coin I purchased for two figures. 

[Ryro]

Two receipts to avoid looking at these days: ancient coin purchases and basic food. 

I agree with much of your sentiment. Things are tough all over. 

1- bargain auction houses appear to be drying up. 

B- I used to have so many "marks" and a few of their accompaning "snacks" on my watch list from multiple auction houses. Right now my list is almost all snacks from just a few houses and very few exciting coins on the horizon. 

3- the few coins that I've been excited about the last couple of months have slipped through my fingers...or were ripped away. Bidding is fierce!

Though, while I complain I was able to steal my most recent purchase for 100€ under what it sold for pre Covid:

LAKONIA. Lakedaimon (Sparta). Circa 35-31 BC. Dupondius (Bronze, 25 mm, 5.68 g, 10 h), Timandros, ephor. [E TIMA]NΔPOC Laureate head of Apollo to right. Rev. Λ-A Artemis standing front, head to left, holding patera in her right hand and spear in her left; at feet to left, hunting dog standing left; in field to right, monogram; all within wreath. BCD Peloponnesos 912-913. Grunauer XIX, Series 2. Rare. Very fine.

From an American collection and previously from an Australian collection, Leu Web Auction 10, 7-8 December 2019, 292.

[seth77]

In my case, there are more markets that act completely independent from each other.

1. In the medieval market things went to a standstill for me as early as 2022 or thereabouts. Things that I would like to add in this field are at this point unreachable, not on account of price but mostly of rarity.

2. In the Palaiologan market 2023 was probably the best year for scarce and interesting trachea types, mostly very affordable. My top 2023 post was dedicated to these coins. The overall look of these coins and the difficulty in making attributions if you are not familiar with the types and features of these issues mean that most get offered with minimal or even no attribution at all and most of the time individual research really pays off.

3. In the Greek Imperial market there is great polarization: types and towns that command very high prices in ANY condition and towns and types that are really slept on despite the objective interest, be it mythological or historical. But even in the high-price areas good deals are to be had as much as it was before, especially in the unattributed areas.

4. In the Late Roman market I have been noticing a rise in prices for very common but very high grade material in the last 5 years. The trend has been steadily building and now I add the best-looking common 4th century coins in my watchlist just to see how high would they rise once the auction starts. At the same time, decent condition material continues to be very affordable even for scarce types and under-attributed material where rarities might dwell is readily available at any time.

5. The last 2-3 years I used the weekend auctions on biddr not just as means to follow certain interests but also as a relaxation venue. That means I would have my beers while following the live auctions and decide ad hoc to bid on things that I had previously not researched, if 'cheap'. It was part of a frame of mind everybody here knows too well: the 'let's add stuff to make the shipping fee worth it' approach. This has brought very interesting results but mostly just regular stuff that does not spark joy. How many F to VF- maiorinae from the second half of the 4th century does one need before they become uninteresting?

All-in-all I stand by my observations from 2020/1 onward: what I am after did not jump in prices at all after the covid debacle. In fact it kept mostly in the same nominal ballpark price-wise, which in the situation of high inflation means an actual decrease in price. Regular groceries are up 80-90%, energy bills around 30-50% higher, but when it comes to coins, 100EUR can still command the same good value and interest (if not more) in all categories listed (with the exception of medieval) as in 2020. At least for me.

Some latest swell bargains, none posted before:

Edited February 28 by seth77

[Arcane76]

Just a thought: This year NGC had a 2, or maybe 3 article series on why collectors should be discovering and buying ancient coins. So maybe we are seeing heavier bidding partially because of that? Just a thought( though not a deep one). 

[ambr0zie]

Some things I noticed in the last 6 months or so

1. Less interesting coins. For me interesting does not mandatory mean ultra rare or FDC. When I say interesting, it could be a common emperor/city/whatever but with an interesting reverse. 1 year ago when I was checking a new auction from one of my favorite houses, I usually marked 15-20 coins in my list. 2-3 "mandatory", 5-6 "good to have", rest "could be a good snack". Of course I didn't win all, but now I see myself more and more often not marking more than 2-3 coins per auction, and no, they are not fantastic. 

There is also a secondary reason here - my collection grew and many targets are already fulfilled so this could be "my fault" also - what I found interesting 2 years ago is now a ticked box. 

2. Less bargains. Again I am not sure if it is my perception, but I am looking at the coins I bought 1-2 years ago and see similar examples going for much more. This is just an observation and I am not sure if this is 100% true. Snacks in my perception - denarii from common rulers, in F+/VF-- condition, for 20-30 euros. Now they go for 40-50 euros. 

3. Small houses with budget coins get more popular. I had a short list of houses where I knew gems can be found. Gems in my book - interesting coins as per my standards going unnoticed because of a small number of bidders. This seems to happen quite rarely. 

4. Some coins are getting very popular. Quick examples - Athens owl tetradrachms in modest condition; Thessalonica bronze with Augustus and Julius Caesar (not a rare coin, interesting, but I refuse to pay 100+ euros for an ugly example); Alexandrian tetradrachms; 2nd century denarii. And I do not mean coins in excellent condition. 

 

Edited February 28 by ambr0zie

[Hrefn]

I agree with the observation that there is more than one market.  I recently bought an Armenian tram of King Hetoum and Queen Zabel.

Price on this coin including fees, postage, etc. was 34 Euro.  This is interesting because I purchased the same type coin from a dealer in France sometime before 1973, as one of my first overseas purchases.  The price was 70 francs, which was about $14.  Adjusted for inflation, that 14 dollars would be equivalent to 97 dollars in 2024.  Conclusion:  this coin is substantially less expensive than it was 50 years ago.  

 

 

On the other hand I find coins within my primary areas of collecting interest, which would be Byzantine gold and Migration era coins, have increased substantially in price.  Some of this increase is due to the increased price of gold,  which is up eightfold over the past 24 years.  My purely subjective impression that there is, also, increased interest in Migration era coins.  The best chance of acquiring one is when it is incorrectly attributed.  The latest additions to this tray were listed by the auctioneers as ordinary products of the imperial mint at Constantinople.  

My newest area of interest is Carolingian coins, and I have not been collecting these long enough to have a sense of their change in price over time.  High grade bronzes of the Tetrarchy and Constantinian era do seem to be getting more expensive.  
My observation is that over my collecting lifetime, as a general rule, high grade coins increase in price more rapidly than low grade coins do.  Since coins are a poor investment vehicle (in my humble opinion; and due to their very limited market, high transaction costs, and lack of fungibility,) I would never urge a new collector to focus on price appreciation anyway.  Except for this single consideration;  if you have the opportunity to purchase an exemplary coin in outstanding condition, remember that it is unlikely to become more affordable to you over time.  
 

[Rand]

This year I also see fewer coins of my interest - cannot even comment on the price trend. However this is not the first time when this happened and the following year (or later in a year) everything was back to normal. Last year was exceptionally plentiful in my area of interest.

One may speculate that metal detector finds may slow down. Hard to say. The UK PAS may give some insight on the find trends.

[Kaleun96]

I think you have to be a bit careful drawing any conclusions so early into the year and also from specific auction houses/dealers.

• January is a feature auction month and e-sales tend to be a bit weaker following them.
• We all know what's going on with Roma. 
• Re: Leu, a lot of their inventory appears to come from hoards so you see some big swings in trends for certain types of coins.
• But excluding hoards, large consignments can dominate an auction house's calendar for half a year or more and we may never know it if the consignors choose to not use a collection name. An example of this for my own collection area is the Don T. Hayes collection that CNG has been selling off but his collection included a lot more than just Alexander tetradrachms. CNG started selling them in March 2023 and it's still going, though it feels like it's dying down a bit
• Certain dealers also often get a sudden influx either from a consignment or hoard.
• Regular collectors also might be less likely to have consigned their coins in Nov/Dec last year than at other times during the year

So I think it's just the normal ebb and flow. Sometimes I'll go months without buying a coin from CNG or Leu just due to the kind of coins they're consigning at that time. I just assume that while those sales may not be interesting for me, I'm sure they're interesting for someone else. Those other people are probably glad that finally these auction houses are back to selling coins they collect, while for me those previous sales were perfect for me.

[Al Kowsky]

One popular trend that is still popular is taking raw high grade ancient coins sold at auction & getting them slabbed. Sometimes this can really payoff & at other times you can end up losing money. A good case to point at is a Siculo-Punic tetradrachm that will appear in a major Heritage auction, see photos below. This coin sold at Nomos Auction 20, lot 51, July 10, 2020, for a price realized of 2,800 CHF (Swiss francs). Add on the buyer's premium of 22.5 %, and take into account the fall in value of the U.S. $ since nearly 4 years ago, & this coin would have to sell for over $3,893.31 to show a profit 😮. I'll be curious to see what Heritage gets for this coin & would be surprised if it exceeds $3,000.00. The coin is well struck & attractive but has an annoying die-break on the cheek of Melqart-Heracles.

[El Cazador]

3 hours ago, Al Kowsky said:

One popular trend that is still popular is taking raw high grade ancient coins sold at auction & getting them slabbed. Sometimes this can really payoff & at other times you can end up losing money. A good case to point at is a Siculo-Punic tetradrachm that will appear in a major Heritage auction, see photos below. This coin sold at Nomos Auction 20, lot 51, July 10, 2020, for a price realized of 2,800 CHF (Swiss francs). Add on the buyer's premium of 22.5 %, and take into account the fall in value of the U.S. $ since nearly 4 years ago, & this coin would have to sell for over $3,893.31 to show a profit 😮. I'll be curious to see what Heritage gets for this coin & would be surprised if it exceeds $3,000.00. The coin is well struck & attractive but has an annoying die-break on the cheek of Melqart-Heracles.

I actually think it will go closer to $4,000+

 

in my opinion it is superior to your example @Al Kowskythat you showed a year - two ago!

 

this is easily $4,000 - $5,000 coin

[Al Kowsky]

1 hour ago, El Cazador said:

I actually think it will go closer to $4,000+

 

in my opinion it is superior to your example @Al Kowskythat you showed a year - two ago!

 

this is easily $4,000 - $5,000 coin

You may be right, but time will tell. I scored my Siculo-Punic tetradrachm about 9 years ago for $1.762.50.

 

 

 

[AncientJoe]

I see this as less of a demand issue and more of a supply issue: there haven't been many meaningful collections on the market recently. I've skipped several major auctions where I just didn't find anything I "needed". That said, it will likely be heating back up in the spring with a few important collections coming to market at NAC and Nomos. Until then, we're in that lull period post-Triton/pre-Spring (although even all of last year was admittedly a bit hit or miss on finding coins to bid on for my collection).

[robinjojo]

I think that the war in the Middle East has caused some significant disruption in the flow of coins to the market from Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt and Israel.  In the past Israel has been an important transit point for hoard coins flowing in from the surrounding countries.  I base the observation on the groups that have been presented to me in the past.  The two sources for these coins are gone and I don't know if there are others out there.  The closest to that kind of source is the UAE seller, Zurquieh.  The flow of ancients continues with him, apparently, but where they are coming from is, I am sure, a well guarded secret.  

On the Greek side I have noticed a pronounced drop in the number of pharaonic owls on offer, compared to 2022.  There are still a number of Tigranes II tetradrachms appearing from what must have been a very large hoard that emerged in 2023.  Also, the bronze prutahs of the First Revolt and other Judaic coins remain plentiful on Zurquieh's webpage,  

As far as I can determine, nothing is coming out of Israel since the war began, so how or even if coin hoards from this strife-ridden region enter the supply stream is unknown to me, and really, in perspective, this is a very minor issue compared to the scope of the ongoing tragedy unfolding before us.

 

Edited February 28 by robinjojo

[Heliodromus]

Talking from perspective of an LRB (Constantine) collector, there seems to be a general long-term trend over last 15+ years of less and less interesting material appearing on the market - basically fewer new finds coming to market, which I suppose is to be expected, but having said that the last two years have probably been the best two years I've had collecting over the course of 20 years, and not due to any one hoard or collection coming to market - just an accumulation of unrelated acquisitions throughout those years. So, there's hope yet!

One trend that I find interesting is the shift in where coins are being sold, in particular the staggering number of brand new vendors (I hesitate to call them auction houses) popping up on biddr.com every week. The number of new names holding their auction #1, or single-digit auction numbers from newcomers, is amazing. Unfortunately the quality of material being offered is often dismal, and emperors/coins often aren't even sorted into date order, so it has a bit of an eBay-ish feel to it, but fresh sources of material are always welcome, and there are hidden gems to be had. I just find the phenomena itself interesting - suddenly every man and his dog is an auction house holding their inaugural auction on biddr.com! I'd be interested in any insights or theories as to why this is happening - is selling ancient coins a get rich scheme being promoted on FaceBook perhaps? Is this just a reaction to eBay fees and prices as a way to get better prices?

 

Edited February 29 by Heliodromus

[seth77]

17 hours ago, robinjojo said:

I think that the war in the Middle East has caused some significant disruption in the flow of coins to the market from Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt and Israel.  In the past Israel has been an important transit point for hoard coins flowing in from the surrounding countries.  I base the observation on the groups that have been presented to me in the past.  The two sources for these coins are gone and I don't know if there are others out there.  The closest to that kind of source is the UAE seller, Zurquieh.  The flow of ancients continues with him, apparently, but where they are coming from is, I am sure, a well guarded secret.  

On the Greek side I have noticed a pronounced drop in the number of pharaonic owls on offer, compared to 2022.  There are still a number of Tigranes II tetradrachms appearing from what must have been a very large hoard that emerged in 2023.  Also, the bronze prutahs of the First Revolt and other Judaic coins remain plentiful on Zurquieh's webpage,  

As far as I can determine, nothing is coming out of Israel since the war began, so how or even if coin hoards from this strife-ridden region enter the supply stream is unknown to me, and really, in perspective, this is a very minor issue compared to the scope of the ongoing tragedy unfolding before us.

 

I have actually noticed different these last few months. In fact Jerusalem/Aelia Capitolina is one of the cities I meant that I see getting high prices regardless of emperor or condition in the auctions I follow. Mints from Judaea, Samaria, the Decapolis etc. seem to be more available now than last summer for instance.

Edited February 29 by seth77

[robinjojo]

3 hours ago, seth77 said:

I have actually noticed different these last few months. In fact Jerusalem/Aelia Capitolina is one of the cities I meant that I see getting high prices regardless of emperor or condition in the auctions I follow. Mints from Judaea, Samaria, the Decapolis etc. seem to be more available now than last summer for instance.

I really don't follow Judean coinage, but I have noticed large numbers of bronze coins available through sellers such as Zurquieh.  According to Forum Ancients the First Revolt bronze coins started flooding the market last year, bringing down prices for them.  That trend seems to be carrying over this year.  Could it be that Israeli sellers/middlemen are using other sellers outside the country to market these coins?  As with the origins of other hoard coins the process of these coins entering the market is very opaque to the outside collector.

[KenDorney]

On 2/27/2024 at 4:45 PM, kirispupis said:

First, a number of the standard sellers I rely on have dried up. They were the source of the majority of my purchases last year and one in particular I ordered from nearly weekly. All three of them have posted very few coins this year, and whatever they've listed has been uninterested.

Dealers come and go.  They sell what they have, and if they are a 'source', often they sell out and there isnt anything else.

On 2/27/2024 at 4:45 PM, kirispupis said:

Second, there's been a severe drop in interesting coins overall. Last year there were typically 3-5 auctions at any one time with items I wanted, while lately it's been 0-1. At Leu, for example, I would typically put 10-25 coins on my watch list, then whittle them down to 4-10 over the auction until I bid on them in the live portion. This year I only had 2 on the initial list. Last year I purchased heavily from Roma at the beginning of the year and CNG at the end. I haven't participated in Roma at all this year and only one CNG auction outside of Triton, where I had zero wins. Overall, I'm just not seeing so many interesting coins.

'Interesting' is entirely subjective.  It can mean no coins, or a plethora.  

On 2/27/2024 at 4:45 PM, kirispupis said:

Third, on coins where I have bid there's been tremendous competition. Perhaps there's someone more well-heeled who has my exact plan, because I've been destroyed on the coins I most wanted. For example, I had a major target at Leu and I bid over 2x the highest ever offered for the type and lost. Even on "lower" types I've been outbid more than I used to be. I've lost on a number of items where I won last year.

Yes.  There is insane competition these days.  Often coins going for 2-10 times what they are realistically worth.  Auctions are just not where is is now.  I see many more deals with fixed price dealers.  But you gotta know your material.

[kirispupis]

57 minutes ago, KenDorney said:

Yes.  There is insane competition these days.  Often coins going for 2-10 times what they are realistically worth.  Auctions are just not where is is now.  I see many more deals with fixed price dealers.  But you gotta know your material.

One case in point: for more common coins, I typically check on VCoins before placing a bid. So if a similar quality type is going for $80 on VCoins, I won't bid more than $50 or so, since once you add in all the fees it doesn't make as much sense. In multiple cases, though, I saw the coin bid go way past the VCoins price.

That being said, for the coins I'm interested in (rarer Greek bronzes) there's pretty much nothing on VCoins lately.

[Factor]

23 hours ago, seth77 said:

I have actually noticed different these last few months. In fact Jerusalem/Aelia Capitolina is one of the cities I meant that I see getting high prices regardless of emperor or condition in the auctions I follow. Mints from Judaea, Samaria, the Decapolis etc. seem to be more available now than last summer for instance.

City coins of Judaea, Arabia and Decapolis are my main area of interest and I follow their trends very closely. A major factor in their pricing was tightening of the regulations by Israeli Antiquities Authority over the last several years, making legal ancient coins collecting in Israel very hard and causing many people to give up or significantly slow down. For example, to bring a coin to Israel that was legally purchased abroad on an auction or from a dealer you need to receive an import permit from the AA, for every coin. Otherwise it will be confiscated and you will not get it back. If you want to sell your legally purchased and registered with AA coin, you can only do it with a licensed antiquities dealer, no collector to collector sales. There is of course a black market but people just don't want the hustle.

There are several prominent collectors who don't live in Israel and who are not affected by these changes, so the prices of rare and exceptional coins remain strong but more common and average grade coins are often pretty much impossible to sell, and when they do sell it's usually for a fraction of what they brought a decade or two ago. 

[DonnaML]

One trend I've noticed -- entirely unscientifically -- is that both the competition and the auction prices for Roman Alexandrian coins with interesting and/or unusual reverses seem to have increased considerably in the last few years. For example, in the recent CNG auction of the Beniak Collection, I paid quite a bit more than I had originally anticipated for the Claudius II tetradrachm with Poseidon & dolphin that I posted yesterday. Once I saw where prices were going, I refrained from bidding at all on several earlier coins from that collection that also interested me, in order to save my money for the Poseidon.  The same was true of the Hadrian/Harpocrates diobol from the Staffieri Collection that I bought at an Astarte auction in December.

[Salomons Cat]

At the moment, the market for high-quality Roman coins seems quite sparse to me. I find very few interesting coins in auctions, and it appears that there are currently no significant collections available on the market. Moreover, whenever I add a new coin to my favorites on vCoins or MA-Shops, it sells quite quickly.

Additionally, with the upcoming release of Gladiator 2 in November, I anticipate a surge in interest in ancient Roman coins 🤔 Altogether, I predict that the prices for ancient Roman coins will rise if everything continues as it is at the moment.

[DonnaML]

8 hours ago, Salomons Cat said:

At the moment, the market for high-quality Roman coins seems quite sparse to me. I find very few interesting coins in auctions, and it appears that there are currently no significant collections available on the market. Moreover, whenever I add a new coin to my favorites on vCoins or MA-Shops, it sells quite quickly.

Additionally, with the upcoming release of Gladiator 2 in November, I anticipate a surge in interest in ancient Roman coins 🤔 Altogether, I predict that the prices for ancient Roman coins will rise if everything continues as it is at the moment.

Did the first Gladiator movie or the HBO series on Rome have any effect on the demand or prices for ancient Roman coins?

[Salomons Cat]

18 minutes ago, DonnaML said:

Did the first Gladiator movie or the HBO series on Rome have any effect on the demand or prices for ancient Roman coins?

Good question... I don't know. Gladiator 1 is from 2000, it was another time with less internet auction houses and more metal detector finds. I don't even know if we have enough data to compare auction prices before and after the movie, without checking some old catalogues.
But I believe that the idea that a movie can have an impact is not as absurd as it might sound at first. The Netflix series "The Queen's Gambit" caused an incredible boom for chess shops. I would really not underestimate the potential impact of a movie. If Gladiator II is successful, a few former collectors might rediscover the hobby, and a few new ones might join. Maybe it's only a few people, but given the relatively small size of the ancient coin community, even a single additional wealthy collector can sometimes have a noticeable impact on auction prices. And particularly specialist collectors notice it quite quickly if another collector is interested in the same kind of coins, I believe. It's entirely possible that the movie won't change anything at all, but I genuinely consider the possibility that it might have an impact.

Edited March 15 by Salomons Cat