Have prices gone up?

[Valentinian]

Take a look at the coin types you know on these scans from an old ancient-coin catalog. Before moving on, think about what they would sell for now. Then check the price given below.

The two images are scans of plates of plates 1 and 2 from the Spink fixed-price list Numismatic Circular of January, 1975. I chose it because it is the oldest Spink catalog I have. Spink's, founded in 1666 [sic!] has long been one of the most respected coin firms in the world. In 1975 if you wanted to buy top-quality ancient coins, Spink was one of the major sources. 

Now, about the Greek coins on plate 1.  Here are lot numbers and 1975 prices in pounds and in 1975 dollars (Today, Sept. 29, 2023, the pound is $1.22. In January 1975 it was $2.35.):
lot   pounds   dollars, both in 1975
#3  £595      $1400
#5  £2650    $6230
#6  £1285     $3020
#9  £1285      $3020
#10  £325      $760
#13  £650    $1530
#18 £295        $690
#20  £310      $730
#21  £525     $1230
#22  £295      $690
#26  650 £    $1530
#29  585 £     $1370
For the Republican coins on the second plate, 1975 prices:
#42  £420     $987
#43  £740    $1740
#44  £285     $670
#52  £265     $630
#56  £40        $94
#58  £45       $105
#66  £198     $465
#67  £175     $410
#68  £225    $530

Observations:  I checked the US Consumer Price Index for January 1975 and compared it the one for last month. The ratio is 5.9. So, a selected basket of consumer goods costs, in dollars, 5.9 times as much as it did then. 

Greek.  Some of those would not cost more now, not even counting inflation. 

Roman.  They all are listed in pounds at well below what they would sell for now. Even in dollars they are below current prices, but by less than the inflation factor of 5.9. 

I solicit your observations. 


 

[DonnaML]

I recently paid about 350 Euros for an example of Lot 58 (the M. Volteius Capitoline Temple denarius, I believe), which is quite a bit more than the dollar cost in 1975, albeit not 5.9 times more. I think Roman Republican denarii in general have increased in price more over the last few decades than common  Roman Imperial denarii. Many of which can still be bought in decent condition for not much more than $100.

[sand]

Interesting. Before I looked at the 1975 prices, I estimated the 2023 prices of the following 2 coins.

Coin 13 (Lysimachos tetradrachm with Alexander The Great portrait as far as I know, perhaps) : My estimate was $1500 in 2023 dollars.

Coin 44 (Quadrigatus) : My estimate was $600 in 2023 dollars.

The 1975 Spink prices are as follows, according to the OP.

Coin 13 : $1530 in 1975 dollars.

Coin 44 : $670 in 1975 dollars.

The 2023 prices are very close to the 1975 prices.

Perhaps ancient coin prices decreased, when the internet was invented, and when metal detecting became more common. But then, perhaps ancient coin prices have increased in the last few years, because the number of ancient coin collectors (and speculators) has perhaps increased.

Edited September 30, 2023 by sand

[Hrefn]

The bulk of my collection was purchased after 1990, although I have a few coins purchased in the mid-70’s.    In much of the 1990’s, gold was trading for less than $400/troy ounce.   Now it is five times that amount.   Coins bought for close to bullion value have appreciated similarly.  

Most of my Byzantine solidi were sold for a significant multiple of their gold value at the time.  Few, if any, of them have quintupled in price over thirty years.  From a purely monetary standpoint, gold bullion would have been a superior investment.  

Common coins have appreciated much less than rarities.  Near mint state coins have far exceeded the performance of worn or problem pieces.   Niche coins such as Barbarian coins have out-performed standard Byzantine coins.  

There are fashions amongst numismatists.  The mania for fine gradations of condition has infiltrated the ancient coin community from the US coin market;  it was not of quite such marked importance 30 years ago.   Some pristine solidi command thousands more than their average brethren, which once was not the case.  It is almost as if there is a whole separate market for the 5/5 star Top Pop coins.   

 

In a way, it is not obvious to me that coins should appreciate in price any faster than the rate of inflation.   The coin does not create any more wealth over time.  This solidus is the same as it was in 1960, when it sold for $45.   Unlike a plot of farmland, a herd of goats, or a share of Apple stock, no income can be derived from it aside from the intangible satisfaction of ownership.  

Unless one is prescient or lucky to surf a wave of popular enthusiasm in numismatics, buying and holding a coin collection is unlikely to be a get-rich-quick pursuit.  On the other hand, coin collections do excel as a vehicle for gradual wealth accumulation, an awkward but enjoyable form of savings account.  It is easy to buy, i.e. deposit, and relatively difficult to withdraw, i.e. sell.   Consequently, the balance tends ever upward, the act of saving is enjoyable instead of onerous, the impulse to withdraw and spend is frustrated, and the inflation hedge is built-in.

There are worse ways to spend one’s money.     

 

[Ryro]

I'm too new and young to the hobby to offer much. But would point out that those are some choice MFing examples compared to much of the slock we see today. Prices might be a bit high, YoY, but with modern globalization, and how much easier it is to order from around the globe now,  not very shocking.

[Deinomenid]

The Morton and Eden sale (possibly one of the top sales for a while for Greek) this week gave lots of reference points in its catalogue for high coins and prior prices. They are fairly easy if laborious to track. Generally much as you’d expect - the “best” coins went up the most over the timeframes offered, and on down from there.
It also offered a chance to see a couple of the major players in action and the p:ssing matches they get into. For anyone who watched (brutally early for me and over 11 hours total) bidder 3 (referred to as Peter, the dealer for him) was the same person as at the Swiss auctions recently who completely upended prices for fractionals. Unfair to name him or speculate on his knowledge (the Hunt Bros were apparently not that interested or knowledgeable about their amazing coins) but a sign where the major distortion probably is if a couple of super-rich want to build a collection quickly.

For the mid-market though it’s way different-  I bought quite a few coins from Spink last year that were a good half of what the seller had paid in the 1970s often in chf and from the old Leu. Utter disaster as an investment for him. Ruinous in real terms. I dearly hope he held them for fun and interest.

For a rainy day, r numis catalogues even back to the 1890s often show the prices paid written in by hand. As do the extensive Lockett Greek records online.
 

 

[NewStyleKing]

For NewStyles in the last 12 years , yes very much.  Hoards have disappeared. 

[Hrefn]

I believe there are four developments which have served to depress prices over time.   The first is the technology of metal detecting which provides a continuous stream of new supply to the market.  The fall of the Iron Curtain allowed some unknown amount of coins to reach the Western market, the owners of those coins being eager to trade for Western hard currency.    And the rise of the internet provides vastly expanded access, comparison shopping, and information to the coin trade.   I strongly suspect the inefficiency of the pre-internet market served to raise prices.

As a thought experiment, consider a collector circa 1960 who desired a particular coin type.   The more uncommon the coin, the less likely the collector can find it in a local coin shop.  He or she may correspond with a few select dealers, even overseas, in a terribly inefficient effort to locate a specimen of the desired coin.  A coin show, which necessitates travel and lodging, and is infrequent, may provide an example.  Or, a copy of an auction catalogue might provide a buying opportunity IF the collector is aware of the auction and subscribes to the catalogues.  

Given the difficulty of locating the desired merchandise, it is no surprise that the collector will pay, and pay heavily, when a specimen is finally located. The time and expense of the hunt for the coin is only justified by its purchase;  so what if the coin was a bit pricey?  

Today, the collector has free access to every auction in the world, and the inventory of every major dealer, at the click of a button.  There is no need to panic buy the first specimen that comes along, which allows the collector to be more discriminating about the price.  

So, metal detecting, the fall of the Iron Curtain, and the internet have all effectively increased supply.  Classical economics would suggest prices fall.   But there is one other factor which I sense has changed, although it is my impression only.   Demand is down.  

The Modern World hates the past.   

[Sulla80]

22 hours ago, Valentinian said:

Take a look at the coin types you know on these scans from an old ancient-coin catalog. Before moving on, think about what they would sell for now.

[skip]

Observations:  I checked the US Consumer Price Index for January 1975 and compared it the one for last month. The ratio is 5.9. So, a selected basket of consumer goods costs, in dollars, 5.9 times as much as it did then.
Greek.  Some of those would not cost more now, not even counting inflation. 

Roman.  They all are listed in pounds at well below what they would sell for now. Even in dollars they are below current prices, but by less than the inflation factor of 5.9. 

I solicit your observations.

The Price Trend: In general I don't think coins keep up with inflation. Looking at all prices for Crawford 287/1 between 2000 and 2023 in ACSearch

(For one anecdote see: https://www.sullacoins.com/post/my-investment-thesis)

Not as simple as it looks:

- The same graph will not be the same for all coins or coin categories

- Quality of coins sold could be changing

- Perhaps the "outliers in high price" are going up?

My Purchasing Trend: The price I've paid for a Roman Republican denarius is going up..

Not as simple as it looks: I am generally drifting towards more unusual coins in better condition

 

The Supply Trend: The number of coins available in internet venues seems to be going up

Not as simple as it looks: there are likely other factors

- Vendors joining internet venues & ACSearch

- Lower quality coins coming to auction

- Same coins reselling more frequently

Edited September 30, 2023 by Sulla80

[El Cazador]

23 hours ago, Valentinian said:

Take a look at the coin types you know on these scans from an old ancient-coin catalog. Before moving on, think about what they would sell for now. Then check the price given below.

The two images are scans of plates of plates 1 and 2 from the Spink fixed-price list Numismatic Circular of January, 1975. I chose it because it is the oldest Spink catalog I have. Spink's, founded in 1666 [sic!] has long been one of the most respected coin firms in the world. In 1975 if you wanted to buy top-quality ancient coins, Spink was one of the major sources. 

Now, about the Greek coins on plate 1.  Here are lot numbers and 1975 prices in pounds and in 1975 dollars (Today, Sept. 29, 2023, the pound is $1.22. In January 1975 it was $2.35.):
lot   pounds   dollars, both in 1975
#3  £595      $1400
#5  £2650    $6230
#6  £1285     $3020
#9  £1285      $3020
#10  £325      $760
#13  £650    $1530
#18 £295        $690
#20  £310      $730
#21  £525     $1230
#22  £295      $690
#26  650 £    $1530
#29  585 £     $1370
For the Republican coins on the second plate, 1975 prices:
#42  £420     $987
#43  £740    $1740
#44  £285     $670
#52  £265     $630
#56  £40        $94
#58  £45       $105
#66  £198     $465
#67  £175     $410
#68  £225    $530

Observations:  I checked the US Consumer Price Index for January 1975 and compared it the one for last month. The ratio is 5.9. So, a selected basket of consumer goods costs, in dollars, 5.9 times as much as it did then. 

Greek.  Some of those would not cost more now, not even counting inflation. 

Roman.  They all are listed in pounds at well below what they would sell for now. Even in dollars they are below current prices, but by less than the inflation factor of 5.9. 

I solicit your observations. 


 

Coin #13 with superb style will sell for $5,000+ easily now

 

#68 $2,000 now easily 

 

the rest - buyer simply overpaid by a wide margin, hence loses. Moral of the story- buy low sell- high and not the other way around, irrespective of stars, slabs, etc…

Edited September 30, 2023 by El Cazador

[Deinomenid]

This coin is a good example re top end bun-fights and  not buying low. A decent drachm from Katane.  Its mint, probable engraver, EF condition and relative rarity allow it to be played as a top end coin. I'm not sure it is,  but  it's  not my money so...

Went  into  Triton 12 years ago as  a $7k coin, then out of NAC 4 years ago as a $15k coin,  then  popped through Roma a few weeks ago as a  $24k coin and  now, just today re=emerging as a 50k coin for sale  in Chicago.

When the ducks are quacking, feed them.

 

 

[Rand]

12 minutes ago, Deinomenid said:

Went  into  Triton 12 years ago as  a $7k coin, then out of NAC 4 years ago as a $15k coin,  then  popped through Roma a few weeks ago as a  $24k coin and  now, just today re=emerging as a 50k coin for sale  in Chicago.

Quite shocking. Still, it remains to be seen what would happen to the coin. The Chicago seller is focused on high-end buyers, but some coins have been offered for a long time.

I watch one (in a much lower price bracket), for which I was the underbidder pushing rather high before letting it go. The coin was probably best for type at the time but not as unique as described by the auction. Since then, four more coins appeared from the same hoard (one probably from a different mint), of which I was lucky to get three. I still like the Chicago seller's coin but would not pay more that in the original sale. It has been on offer for well over a year now...

 

[kapphnwn]

I have to apologies my answer is very tardy. I was involved with a vexing problem involving Canada Customs. One of the bigger issues when trying to assess the value of ancient coins using FPL's is that while the dealer might put the coin out at that price, he may not get it. Auctions are more likely a more accurate window into historic coin pricing however, even they can be misleading. Now before going into my story I should make a few things clear.

1. During the 1990's there was an almost perfect storm which led to in many cases the collapse of coin prices. The first was the fall of the Com Bloc, the second was the advent of the metal detector, and the third was on line sites such as Ebay and V Coins. Thus you had a flood of coins entering the market and a clean simple and cheap means of selling them. 

2.Despite what I am about to record, I do have memories of FPLs, getting them, phoning up the dealer only to find that the coins i was interested were long gone. This has happened to me many times and was intensely frustrating. 

Okay to my story. Back in March of 1991 Munzen und Medaillen published their Liste 541 listing an Aureus od Antoninus Pius for 5800 CHF At the time this would represent a price of about $ 4800 CDN or about $4400 USD. When I visited their shop in Basel Switzerland on October of that year, the coin had not yet sold. In fact at the time M & M had something like 5 aueri in house, all of Antoninus Pius. So when I picked this one out they were willing to deal. My negotiations for this coin were rather complicated. Long story shart it ended up with me paying something like 900 CHF less than the asking price. While i will admit that many coins that are found on FPL's did go for their asking some do not. I cannot say why I got such a deal on my coin. It might be that they had five aurei of Pius or I had simply overstayed my welcome. 

Antoninus Pius Av Aureus 152-153 AD Obv Head right laureate Rv Emperor togate standing left holding globe RIC 226 7.28 grms 20 mm Photo by W. Hansen

 

[panzerman]

I recently got a nice coin from Sincona Auction.

It came with three previous Auction data labels/ 1936 Berlin sold for 25 Reich Marks ($5US) In 1971 same coin sold for $225US/ in 2001 it sold for 900 SFRCS. Mine from 2018 sold for 4100 SFRCS. I saw one sell for 5600 euros in Slovak Auction in 2021. Remember it sold for $5US in 36/ a thousand fold increase to 2021. I think its the higher quality coins that people are willing to pay huge premiums for.

[Rand]

12 hours ago, panzerman said:

I recently got a nice coin from Sincona Auction.

Amazing coin. There has been a spike in prices for premium coins from the Papal state, like this one. The coins of Alexander VI seemed to attract extra attention since the Borgia TV series (2011-2013). In contrast, coins from the Papal state in average or lower condition attract relatively little interest, even when rare.

[panzerman]

That series on the Borgias was excellent/ was really upset when they cancelled it. Knightfall was another great series on Templars vs. Philippe IV of France.