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What's going on in Russia


Ancient Coin Hunter

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Exactly what i was thinking, the eerie similarity and history repeating itself! 

I just copy pasted this from reddit:

Both men:

Lost political infight back in the capital

Ordered to surrender their military command

The senate/Putin calls the general a traitor

Lead successful campaigns on the frontline while other units aren't doing so well

Leads highly trained, royal and battle harden veteran

Decide to invade the capital when most of the empire's other military are fighting on the frontline.

There isn't enough troops defending the capital.

Edited by JayAg47
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39 minutes ago, Kali said:

One of the guys thugs has Nazi tattoos on himself, I doubt that is a good thing.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12229365/Wagner-Groups-senior-figures-key-players-25-000-strong-militia.html

No, I agree. Military coups don't often improve a situation. One can only hope that the lesser of the two evils prevails in this case; whether that is Putin or Prigozhin I can't say.

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Very little bloodshed in Russia so far, and may remain that way unless there is any fighting between Kadyrov's Chechen troops (who atm are apparently supporting Putin - and moving towards Rostov which Wagner has taken) and Wagner. Putin seems to be done - massive show of weakness on his part. Prigozhin is no better than Putin, but things won't get better in Russia without change, and so this is an opportunity.

The Russian state (such as it is - really non-existent) defense against Wagner's convoy headed for Moscow is comical - a few trucks blocking highway and excavators digging up the roads to make it more difficult to advance.

 

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7 minutes ago, Heliodromus said:

unless there is any fighting between Kadyrov's Chechen troops

I am seeing news that the Chechens either let the Wagner column by or joined them. A little bit like legions changing sides on the battlefield 😛

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2 hours ago, Heliodromus said:

Apparently Prigozhin has now called off his advance on Moscow under some (as yet unknown) negotiated settlement...

 

They've dropped charges against Prigozhin and he's going to get "asylum" in Belarus. Like he's really going to be safe from Putin there. I expect to see a report in the foreseeable future that he's accidentally fallen from a high window in Minsk.

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This isn't 1917 all over again. 

Wars, once started, take on their own character, quickly tearing up the plans for quick victory, and this one is looking more like the First World War, a long slog of killing, dislocation of people and massive destruction with an uncertain outcome, not humanity's finest hour.

Edited by robinjojo
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Probably a lack of logistics. In order to move anywhere they would need fuel food and ammunition. I would not be surprised if the Russian military only supplied these guys with only the bare minimum for operational requirements. Thus in very short order the 30,000 men (if the numbers are accurate) would be not much more than a badly armed mob. 

Edited by kapphnwn
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I think there's more (or less) to this than meets the eye. It seems to have been a rather unhinged move by Prigozhin to protect his own interests, rather than an attempt at a coup as such. It seems that Putin blinked and Prigozhin for time being got what he wanted. There's video of him leaving Rostov smiling and taking selfies with the locals - being treated like a rock star. The supposed Lukashenko involvement and Belarus exile aspect is odd, but probably not exactly as it appears - just a way for a deal to be made without Putin appearing to have made it.

The whole thing is quite extraordinary, not least in the minimal response by Putin and Russian MoD, despite Wagner having shot down a half dozen Russian helicopters as well as an IL-22 plane with a crew of around 10... and still he gets to walk away, for now.

I wouldn't quite characterize Wagner as a badly armed mob ... They appear to be a more effective fighting force than the regular Russian army, and have been trusted (until now at least) with modern weaponry obtained from the army, such as a Pantsir surface to air missile system they brought on their escapade and used to shoot down those Russian air force assets!

 

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After having read some expert opinions about this topic I assume that Prigozhin might have been desperate, maybe the way to Moscow simply seemed less dangerous and more promising than continuing in Ukraine. Maybe he was looking for a way out, without losing his mercenaries and his power. 
That he suddenly turned around before reaching Moscow might have had various reasons. Maybe the Russian secret service had his family or he received text messages from supposed allies that urged him to stop, or maybe not all of his mercenaries would have followed him to Moscow.

What worries me is that humanity doesn't seem to become smarter. Technology evolved, but apart from that a big part of human history still seems to be shaped by only a few men with quite primitive brains. Sometimes I have no clue how we shall survive as a species.

Edited by Salomons Cat
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On 6/26/2023 at 5:50 PM, Salomons Cat said:

What worries me is that humanity doesn't seem to become smarter. Technology evolved, but apart from that a big part of human history still seems to be shaped by only a few men with quite primitive brains. Sometimes I have no clue how we shall survive as a species.

Brains - primitive or otherwise - have nothing to do with it. The problem is human nature. Technology, or higher intelligence, cannot and never will solve that problem; it only magnifies it.

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1 hour ago, CPK said:

Brains - primitive or otherwise - have nothing to do with it. The problem is human nature. Technology, or higher intelligence, cannot and never will solve that problem; it only magnifies it.

I think that it does, because it is not rational and it is not wise; we should not have called ourselves sapiens. Humans all have the same enemies: Aging, cancer, diabetes, frailty, earthquakes, one day a meteorite will hit the earth, later the moon will collide with the earth, the sun will explode and the universe will ultimately implode or evaporize.

But instead of trying to solve these problems, we kill each other and waste resources and time because of tiny square metres of land that we don't need. Russia is big enough anyways, China is also big enough. Even Liechtenstein (where I grew up) is big enough as a country. If this is our nature and we cannot overcome it by rational thinking then we have no future in the long term.
 

 

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