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Crypto Crash and the Ancient Coin Market


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I just saw that Bitcoin is currently just under -10%. It's a good thing that I had already sold all my Bitcoins at 56,000 euros months ago. 

But on the subject. I am not a financial expert and can therefore only share my personal assessment.

If it has an impact, then I think it will be more in the direction that the prices for "hard goods" will rise even further. Money is not really something solid. Bitcoins are no better - all this is not a real equivalent. Real gold, a classic car or even coins are something "tangible" for many people. 

For example, I have been trying to organise a classic car for a friend for two months. When you thought the prices of classic cars had already risen abnormally in the last few years and you thought the bubble would soon burst, the prices have risen again this year. I just can't get a decent vintage car bought in good condition at a fair price. Too many people are investing in real things right now.

The uncertain coming Corona autumn and winter, the uncertain situation in Ukraine with Russia, the uncertain situation with Taiwan and the USA (which is escalating again) and the uncertain money and interest rate policy are causing money to move elsewhere.

But these are just the thoughts of a private person. As I said, I am not a financial expert or some guru who would even know how the future will play out.

Maybe soon a good time to buy some bitcoin again when the bottom is found. 

I was planning to buy an ancient Greek coin or two again yesterday. But the prices seemed to have no end again. The question will soon arise - whether you can still buy coins with a clear conscience - or whether you are not buying completely overpriced in the meantime. Of course, one always has a loss when buying - one would have to sell again. But the prices are approaching a high where, in my view, the loss on a sale is far too high.

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Bitcoin closed last Friday at 23,646, that's a 13.52% drop 😲! Maybe the bottom is near, regardless, it's a dangerous roll of the dice 🤑. I don't see why it should impact the coin market, however, the value of the dollar could directly impact the coin market.

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Crypto generates outsized headlines for a rather thinly held "commodity". It's irrelevant to most people.

If people are looking at their brokerage statements then S&P 500 20% down from peak, NASDAQ 30% down, Netflix 75% down, Amazon 45% down, Tesla 45% down ...

Or, how about grocery prices, gas prices, car prices, house prices (good or bad depending on whether you own or not) ...

Crypto? Least of most people's worries.

 

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I know of two high-end collectors who have bought many substantial coins recently, having made their fortunes in Bitcoin (alas, I've never owned any despite being acutely aware of it in my industry). They've both diversified most of their holdings, selling incrementally over time, so I wouldn't expect a substantial impact.

Edited by AncientJoe
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My financial advisor for a family of funds I own has been suggesting a crypto/blockchain position in their new ETF. I so far have avoided it. It's open to accredited investors who put in a minimum of $100k in an initial transaction. The idea is to spread risk by investing in crypto infrastructure firms rather than the currency itself. So far I have dragged my feet on the proposal which was represented as a ground floor opportunity. So I don't plan on investing in it. 

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Vor 1 Stunde sagte Heliodromus:

Krypto erzeugt übergroße Schlagzeilen für eine eher dünn gehaltene "Ware". Es ist für die meisten Menschen irrelevant.

Wenn die Leute sich ihre Brokerage-Statements ansehen, dann S&P 500 20% nach unten vom Höchststand, NASDAQ 30% nach unten, Netflix 75% nach unten, Amazon 45% nach unten, Tesla 45% nach unten ...

Oder wie wäre es mit Lebensmittelpreisen, Gaspreisen, Autopreisen, Hauspreisen (gut oder schlecht, je nachdem, ob Sie besitzen oder nicht) ...

Krypto? Am wenigsten Sorgen der meisten Menschen.

 

Yes, in real terms it only generates headlines. Hardly anyone I know really invests in Bitcoins. But it's the headlines that have an indirect impact. People read this and react accordingly - even if they don't have Bitcoin.

Among acquaintances and relatives, people often discuss at meetings - what else can you buy? Call money? Shares? Funds? Bitcoin? And headlines like today's with the Bitcoin - unsettle people - even if they are not directly affected by it. All these headlines give them the impression that money / virtual money is no longer (so) safe.

So I'd rather invest my money somewhere else. Renovate my house. Buy a painting. A classic car. Coins. Gold.

 

Vor 48 Minuten sagte AncientJoe:

Ich kenne zwei High-End-Sammler, die in letzter Zeit viele bedeutende Münzen gekauft haben, nachdem sie ihr Vermögen in Bitcoin verdient haben (la, ich habe noch nie welche besessen, obwohl ich mir dessen in meiner Branche sehr bewusst war). Beide haben die meisten ihrer Bestände diversifiziert und sich im Laufe der Zeit schrittweise verkauft, so dass ich keine wesentlichen Auswirkungen erwarten würde.

I admit I did that to a limited extent when I sold my Bitcoins. But I had only used "play money" - not an extremely high amount in Bitcoins. And when that was sold, I remembered my old hobby again and started collecting.

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6 minutes ago, Prieure de Sion said:

Yes, in real terms it only generates headlines. Hardly anyone I know really invests in Bitcoins. But it's the headlines that have an indirect impact. People read this and react accordingly - even if they don't have Bitcoin.

Perhaps, but that has to be a pretty marginal effect. Anyone who wasn't already cowering in their basement after the headlines of the last two years and ongoing is probably still buying ancient coins! And of course there's also plenty of headlines about the bear market and inflation that do affect more people.

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14 hours ago, Prieure de Sion said:

I just saw that Bitcoin is currently just under -10%. It's a good thing that I had already sold all my Bitcoins at 56,000 euros months ago. 

But on the subject. I am not a financial expert and can therefore only share my personal assessment.

If it has an impact, then I think it will be more in the direction that the prices for "hard goods" will rise even further. Money is not really something solid. Bitcoins are no better - all this is not a real equivalent. Real gold, a classic car or even coins are something "tangible" for many people. 

For example, I have been trying to organise a classic car for a friend for two months. When you thought the prices of classic cars had already risen abnormally in the last few years and you thought the bubble would soon burst, the prices have risen again this year. I just can't get a decent vintage car bought in good condition at a fair price. Too many people are investing in real things right now.

The uncertain coming Corona autumn and winter, the uncertain situation in Ukraine with Russia, the uncertain situation with Taiwan and the USA (which is escalating again) and the uncertain money and interest rate policy are causing money to move elsewhere.

But these are just the thoughts of a private person. As I said, I am not a financial expert or some guru who would even know how the future will play out.

Maybe soon a good time to buy some bitcoin again when the bottom is found. 

I was planning to buy an ancient Greek coin or two again yesterday. But the prices seemed to have no end again. The question will soon arise - whether you can still buy coins with a clear conscience - or whether you are not buying completely overpriced in the meantime. Of course, one always has a loss when buying - one would have to sell again. But the prices are approaching a high where, in my view, the loss on a sale is far too high.

For Greek and other ancient coins, you might want to check out the electronic auctions held monthly by CNG, Roma and other auction houses.  Good buys can be achieved, but you have to do your homework, know what you are bidding on, the hammer and retail price history of a given type, and the additional costs (buyer's fee, currency conversion rate, if applicable, and shipping cost).

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The crypto crash seems like more of a symptom of what is causing the asset markets in general to tank: Central banks around the world tightening monetary policy.

In the US, quantitative easing that had been on-going since 2009 ended on June 1st. The fed has started to let securities run off its balance sheet. This will reduce the amount of liquidity (i.e. money) available in the economy. Over time this (along with interest rate hikes) will cause people to spend less on non-essentials... including things like coins. Central banks are risking recession through QT and interest rate hikes in order to fight the inflation monster 👹. This is similar to what happened in the early 80s.

What is interesting is that crypto was thought by a lot of people to be a hedge against inflation that was decoupled from financial markets. It seems this has not been the case.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial expert. Never take advice from me... ever... for any reason. :classic_rolleyes:😇

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Don't forget there are many entities other than Bitcoin hustling crypto currencies. They are all fighting for the same pile of crumbs on the table. Precious metals took a big hit today in the commodities market along with stocks. Gold dropped $53.50 today & palladium dropped $143.00 😲! Presently gold is selling for more than palladium; that hasn't happened in a long time & might be a signal for the on-coming recession 🤔.

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Posted · Benefactor

I am putting all of my money on the Tampa Bay Lightning to win the Stanley Cup (although, Colorado are fricken awesome as well)

... sadly, I am a Vancouver Canucks fan, so there's that 

😐

Oh sorry, that's NHL hockey ... yah, I have as much interest in bit-coin as you guys probably do in NHL hockey, eh?

😉

 

 

 

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Crypto "investors" are generally people who get their financial advice from Reddit and Facebook. They're speculators hoping to make money quickly, the kind of sophisticated investors who might buy coins in pretty slabs to try to take advantage of the collectibles boom - a bubble which is bursting as we speak.

I can see slabbed Gordian III ants and Edward I pennies no longer selling for $1000 at Heritage, and drastically losing value.

Most coins that not-so-wealthy people (like me) would buy will probably go down in price too, as discretionary household spending budgets dwindle.

Maybe the big ticket coins (Eid Mar denarii, Colosseum sestertii) will continue to appreciate, as there will always be millionaires competing with each other in auctions.

 

Edited by GregH
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I used to sell bets for the (legal) 'bookies' for a wage of $$ an hour. At the end of the day I went home with significantly more in my pocket than most of the 'punters' did, and I repeated that week after week.

As far as crypto coinage (Bitcoin etc.) goes, by not buying into it I feel that I am in the same position. (Time will tell.)

Edited by Topcat7
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Posted · Administrator

What I'm about to say has given me quite the chuckle and I hope y'all will appreciate this as much as I. When searching 'ancient coin forum', Numis Forums has now risen to page 3 on Google! This is really great growth given everything so far is 100% organic and the site is still less than 1 month old from when we launched the domain name.

Now for the laugh: it is this post that has gotten the website to that page! Funny how Google works... 

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