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I cannot say I found this article terribly helpful. Sworn experts, experience, experience and so on, as usual. 'This guarantee means that collectors do not have to worry about their purchases.', and 'In Germany, for example, many dealers' associations even go one step further: they offer an unconditional warrant for the authenticity of the coins they sell. In this context, unconditional means that if, at some point in the distant future, a coin turns out to be a counterfeit after all, the buyer will receive a full refund. This guarantee means that collectors do not have to worry about their purchases.' A full refund in the distant future means a fraction of the purchase value of the same money today... if the firm still exists. It would be different if the refund was complimented by additional compensation to account for inflation, expenses of the sworn experts and frustration. International buyers are particularly vulnerable, and foreign companies could be out of reach for legal pursuits. It would help if the industry had a single body with fees paid by dealer members to compensate for sold forgeries. It would be good if the article gave more insights into modern analytics, which still sound like weighing, microscopy and X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy. 'Do not choose just any expert, but one who specializes in the very area of the coin that you want to have examined.' How do I do this?

I suppose it depends. In the UK, at least in some sectors, showing interests outside the primary profession is fashionable and nearly essential. This has different purposes, including the ability to cope with burnout/mental health issues - modern-day epidemics. It is hard to predict how numismatics and other collecting hobbies would be seen, especially if employers have lived experiences with spouses-collectors 🙂 I have not seen people putting collecting shoes or magnets on CVs. Numismatics may be seen differently, but it would be helpful to make a twist on how the hobby is presented to demonstrate the desirable qualities.

Thank you @DonnaML for the most exciting stories and coins. I am always impressed with the precision and factuality of your writing. The breadth of your knowledge strikes me. It would be hardly possible for a narrowly specialised collector to see the historic-political context that links centuries of events. Hadrian's denarius with Romulus would be my favourite if I was pressed to make a hard choice of a single coin.

This is an amazing pair. In my eyes, it is by far more valuable than the two separate coins. It does add to the story; it changes our knowledge of history. Congratulations.

My speculations, but factors influencing the longevity of dies may include: The quality of dies, for example, using hardened alloys The temperature of the flan. Gold is soft to start from and can be softened further with optimal heating/transfer of the flan from heat to evil. Imperial coins usually have an area of flatness over the rim, which typically does not affect the legend - likely from tongues. Workflow controls. Dies may have been used for a predefined number of days or coins. I am unsure if solidus dies were used till destruction. There are plenty of very damaged Western dies. I do not see very worn imperial dies. Even when imperial dies are broken, I usually cannot find a coin without the damage. It looks like the die was defective during manufacturing or early during use. Coins below were bought from different dealers on different years. Anastasian dies may look similar, but this is like handwriting in the same language - same patterns, but we can easily see different hands. Over hundreds of dies, it becomes easier to see different hands. The image can be split into many small parts (details of the helmet, shield, horse and rider on the shield, the distance between chest bands and so on). It should be possible to develop AI algorithms, but even without the difference between engravers, it can be quite obvious. This is with exceptions, of course. Army mints likely varied in nature. Mints travelling with Augustus were probably very sophisticated. It could have been different with a Barbarian army when they only minted coins from gold booty from a captured town to share between the combatants. Possibly, they did not have gold for more than a die pair. Some dies can be very broken. For example, I really like this coin even if it is not very attractive. It has a fascinating story. Does a die link prove it was the same issue? Sometimes, it certainly does. I know of an example of a small issue (two coins and both not mine) with a different reverse style, which I would not otherwise link. This is a distinct issue from a Western mint with a T on the emperor's chest, and there is no reason to believe it was a mule from two separate issues.

A lovely pair @John Conduitt I love die links and watching the progression of coin minting. This could be my way of playing a puzzle game or my personality trait. Different people enjoy collecting in different ways. However, the die studies could benefit numismatics as science and broader historical research. The number of dies reflects the number of coins produced, which may describe the economic state or historical events, such as preparation for military campaigns. Obverse/reverse ratios vary depending on manufacturing technology. Overall, for Anastasian coins, the number of obverses and reverses was comparable. The 2227 solidi I have had time to sort by dies were produced using 1268 obverse and 1276 reverse dies. However, some Western series have multiple reverse dies per obverse die. Die links help to understand how mints worked. For example, there is a huge discrepancy in the number of Anastasian solidi produced by different officianae. It is possible that officianae were not just numbers assigned to mint workshops but had additional purposes, perhaps producing coins for particular needs. There are distinct engraver styles for Anastasian solidi. Dies produced by different engravers are often die-linked, so more than one die engraver was employed simultaneously. Concerning the Anastasian period Western mints, die studies help to say whether coins were produced by established city mints (die/style progression) or by temporary mobile mints following Barbaric armies. The latter coins were often produced from a single die pair - we need a die analysis to calculate the probability of the existence of a second die. For example, if there is a type six with known coins all from the same die pair, the chance of other dies being used is less than 5% (which means unlikely). During the Anastasius period, dies were usually replaced rather than repaired, except possibly some Burgundian and other Western coins. For some coins of the Anastasian periods, only die links prove that differently-looking dies were part of the same issue. Unfortunately, I do not own enough coins to illustrate all those points. PS. Some of my comments overlap with the previous reply. I did not type fast enough.

My view is that ancient coins have a big growth potential, and the market is extremely unlikely to collapse. Over the last decades, the sales values have been modest, but this may change. Findings from metal detecting are likely to level or reduce. The physics of metal detecting remains essentially the same; how much it can be improved is unclear. In absolute numbers, many ancient coin types are scarce at a global scale. Whether 1,000 or 10,000 aurei are sold each, this is a small number. More material may benefit the market as it generates more interest from bigger players, advertising, market creation, etc. Unlike some other collectables, ancient numismatics benefits from the attractive link to earlier history, from which we do not have that many records. Coins are portable and durable - a collector can use their wine fridge for their wine rather than stamps. Significant proportions of the material may be removed from the market by being deposited in museum collections by wealthy collectors. Supply of new finds to the market may be restricted by legislation. The above is likely more relevant to the mid-upper segment.

Elderly French couple lose rare African mask case worth millions https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67759639

This is exactly a kind of reasoning I expected. It does make sense for me.

Thank you! Clearly, I lack expertise here.

Amazing coins! I was watching the Avignon coin, but eventually did not bid. Nice to see it in a good company.

It is hard to know whether the price makes sense without hearing the views of those collectors (my assumption). The reasons can be many, especially for specialist collectors. Personally, I like high-grade coins (and value independent grading). However, when focusing on a narrow field when the story the coin tells is more important than its appearance, the condition becomes almost irrelevant… as soon as the coin is original.

I did check the Coryssa database before and found a few records from eBay and other sources not known to me, but it only includes some eBay coin sales. I did not check it during the last two years or so, though.

An example of a coin plotted above

This plot is not about classical ancient coins but is more accurate - I collected records of these coins for many years, including eBay, online shops, and printed catalogues. There will be missed coins from older catalogues, as I need to find many. For museum records, the date is when the coin was first published when the acquisition date is unavailable. I am sure there are more coins in museum collections as some relevant museums did not reply to my requests to provide information or refused it (I will not name them). I multiplied the number of new coins from 2021-2023 by 3.3 to get a decade estimate. I do not attempt the price analysis, as sale values are missing for many older coins. Also, from the 56 coins I know to be in private hands, I own 17, so despite my best intentions, I could have influenced the prices (I no longer focus on these coins).

A very interesting interview, an excellent website and a fascinating topic for specialist collection. Constantinian bronzes are so vast that a lifetime would not be enough to complete them. Finding new types is like discovering new life species. It is exciting to see the history uncovered. Cudos from the specialist collector club.

Interesting points @DonnaML. No, I did not notice a decrease in prices for Roman aurei. Overall, aurei are still relatively few, desirable and upper market, which tends to be stable. This may change if the supply continue to increase. It would be too time-consuming to analyse price trends for many coins, which must account for the coin condition and rarity of individual types. If you have several more common aurei types in mind, I can specifically check the trends by condition, which would be interesting. For the common solidi of Anastasius, which I follow more closely, the prices are relatively stable with some increase. However, the price increase is behind the inflation. I would not be able to resell most of my coins to recover what I paid, accounting for inflation, even without seller fees.

An Aurei plot based on @zadie search criteria. It excludes many non-Aurei and misses a few Aurei. However, the message was not the absolute coin numbers (which are not accurate) - the message is that the number of coins on the market is increasing.

In the 1967 article, 'The first gold issue of Anastasius' (ANS, Museum notes. 1967;13:119-21), Joan Fagerlie lists 8 known solidi of 491-492 PERP Anastasius types, all imperial. No Western types, semisses, or tremisses were included (museums and private collections had a small number). Today, 56 years later, I am aware of 138 such coins. In 2023 alone, 13 new such coins appeared on the market (good news for me). Roma Numismatics Limited. Auction 28. 05/07/2023 A quick search for 'aureus' and 'tetradrachm' in ACSearch.info shows the following trends starting from 2010. It is not precise, includes a few other coins, and needs to account for the increasing popularity of online platforms. Still, the number of coins on the market has increased dramatically. Despite multiple announcements of museum collections expanding, the scale of museum depositions seems relatively small. I have seen multiple examples of rare coins no longer being so rare. The trends for lower-cost coins on the market are harder to estimate, but they may see a particularly high increase. High-value Greek and Roman rarities were more likely to reach collections and museums for centuries, while many less valuable, more common coins ended up in the melting pot until more recently. Can the numismatic market become overwhelmed with supply and follow the stamp market decline in the lower-end segment? Antiques ownership's political and legal pressure might also influence the market unpredictably. What do you think about the future of numismatics?

I wonder whether Italian or Peruvian taxpayers pay for the postage. The postage may well cost more than the coins. The storage and research costs may be less of a concern if the coins are added to a crate with other staff in a bulk storage facility 'for now'.

This is a real danger! At times, my little plot gets busy with visitors. For this, I have a little retreat space. So far, spikes of interest did not last for too long.

I cannot know the specific reason, but selling prices tend to go up around Christmas. Collectors may have more time to live bid on holidays than when working. Also, they may have another reason (and more cash) to treat themselves with presents.

Wonderful coins, @John Conduitt Hoard provenances are the provenances that matter in the historical context. Are there any tips on good places for buying coins found in the UK listed in the PAS and marked as 'Returned to finder'?

I personally would NOT buy the Zeno's coin (I am not an expert though). I have an Anastasius solidus (from a very well known dealer), which seems have been produced similarly. Every time I look at my coins and see it, I do not like it. I have decided I would grade it by NGC and see what happens.

From a quick look into NumisBids right now I can see two very well known Anastasius fakes from reputable dealers. Whom do I need to PM? I know the 'right thing' for me would be to reduce my working hours and keep posting dealers. But I do not think this is the right solution to the problem. The abovementioned fakes are well known from 1960th, but what about newer more dangerrous fakes? I increasingly see fakes of 'Western mints rarities' - many orignianls from the series have never been published. I can stay away from suspicious coins myself, but I am not an expert to keep chasing dealers.