What is the future for ancient numismatics?

[Deinomenid]

Bloomberg publishes a luxury used (“pre-owned” watch price index. It has plunged 40% in the last 2 years. No limit to supply aside from manufacturer intent. I used to see the  luxury coin market (expensive coins!) compared to it when it was going up. Now not so much though there’s definitely some softness in areas of the latter now. 
 

 

[John Conduitt]

1 hour ago, Valentinian said:

The dailybee.com has an article on 25 types of collectibles that were once more valuable than they are now:

https://www.dailybee.com/en/worth-valuable-now-theyre?ly

I'd like to think that ancient-coin collecting has staying-power, unlike some of those categories which were obvious fads. But some other categories, like fine silver dining ware, which can be enjoyed and appreciated on a daily basis, are nevertheless much less popular than years ago. Our kids might accept our silverware as an inheritance, but they don't really want it. And, it would probably sell for only about melt value.

Consider books. If you want information about ancient-coins, are you going to seek and buy the right book, or search the web for free?  Some things go down in value. I think the expensive-watch industry is hanging on only by sophisticated advertising campaigns. Diamond prices are going down. Try to resell a diamond and see what you can get for it. But, owning a nice diamond can yield pleasure for years. Does its value have to go up to make you happy to own something? 

Our hobby pays dividends continuously as we appreciate what we have and we enjoy the learning that coins inspire. All the market forces discussed above may result in changes in the market. Any direction is good for me. If prices go down, I can buy coins for less. If prices go up, my collection becomes more valuable. I don't worry about the market. I, personally, love the hobby and enjoy it every day. 

 

This is the difference with coins. The reasons they were made is what makes them perennially collectible. They are very numerous, very portable, intrinsically valuable and go through the whole of documented history. So there are enough to collect, even if you follow a narrow specialisation, you can keep a lot in your house without taking it over, they are always worth something and they bring all of the history with them.

The first stamp was issued in 1840. That’s almost yesterday in the context of coins. It’s hard to find a niche and easy to get bored. Silverware is bulky and hard to come by if it gets to any age. Diamonds are not worth the price people are tricked into paying for them due to the De Beers monopoly - it’s 90% snob tax. So they devalue like new cars.

Nothing ticks all the boxes like coins. The only threats I see are better fakes (which might’ve put people off antiquities) and the coming point when we stop using them so that they become obscure, dead, historical curiosities. But nothing has replaced them yet.

[Rand]

The fakes are a big concern for ancient numismatics as a hobby and a science. I hope science and industry are working hard to develop new analytics, like uranium, thorium–helium (U,Th–He) dating methods(1), but odd publications do not translate into accessible techniques. Light microscopy was still the method of choice to make noise about Sponsianus. Sadly, I only learnt about the recent ‘Metallurgy in Numismatics Conference’ in Liverpool(2) the week after it happened. I had a chance to speak to one of the organisers and understand the newest reported methods are unlikely to be available beyond specific research projects.

Being a narrow(minded) collector, I keep records of possible fakes. Often, this would not be from an official registry but from posts by reputable numismatists who were able to return their coins as fakes and so on. I see coins differently than I did years ago, start understanding why those coins were fakes. I have suspicions about my own two Anastasian solidi bought from reputable European auctions: an inexpensive solidus and a more expensive solidus (4-digit), based on their fabric/style.

Dies studies could be helpful (in addition to what we discussed on another thread). Generally, die analyses become more reliable when there are 5-6 coins per die. However, the possibility of fakes is also considered when there are more than five coins from the same die. I have no concern when they are nicely linked to other dies with no unusual features. When many coins come from an isolated die pair not known pre-1960s, this is a red flag for a forgery. Now, forgers tend to use several dies, which still keeps them as a new and odd cluster. In the future, when all dies and die combinations for a type are well documented, the appearance of a coin from new dies would trigger suspicion.

Returning to my two coins, the first coin is linked to other coins, which seem ok. Still, in hands, my coin looks unnatural, ‘pressed’. My suspicions are not enough to disturb the Auction house. The second coin is one of four from the same die pair. It has an unusual Victoria style on the reverse (but this could have been made by a visiting/apprentice die engraver). Of the four coins, I do not like three, one of which has the same ‘metal flow’ on a die border as mu coin. Again, there are not enough arguments to return the coin.

I have decided to get NGC grading and return the coins if they fail. I cannot see any other practical way to deal with my suspicions. Apologies for not showing photos and naming vendors - following the ethics considerations we discussed on another thread. If they are marked as fakes by NGC, I will show them. I fear the more likely statement could be ‘unable to confirm authenticity’. This would be enough to approach the auction house but not to be publicly designate them as fakes.

1. Eugster, O. Dating geologic gold deposits and authenticating a Greek gold tiara, an ancient gold chalice, and swimming dragon artifacts of the Chinese Han dynasty. Gold Bull 51, 139–144 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13404-018-0238-z

2. Metallurgy in Numismatics Conference – Liverpool, 19th-20th April 2022 https://numismatics.org.uk/2022/03/29/metallurgy-in-numismatics-conference-liverpool-19th-20th-april-2022/