The NYINC Auctions Fantasy Game

[idesofmarch01]

With all the upcoming auctions at NYINC in January, I thought it might be fun to create a fantasy game for the ancient coin collectors here.  The rules would be as follows:

1.     Each player has $100,000 in fantasy money to bid on coins at any of the NYINC auctions.  For simplicity’s sake, we’ll ignore any associated buyer’s fees (i.e., all $100K in fantasy funds can be spent on coins).

2.     Each player assembles a list of the coins on which to bid, including (a) auction name, (b) lot # and short description, and (c) maximum bid.

3.     No “if-then” bids are allowed.  I.e., players’ lists cannot include bids of the type “If I don’t win this lot, then I’ll reallocate these funds to another coin.”  Fantasy funds can only be allocated once.

4.     All bid lists must be finalized prior to Monday, January 9^th, when the first auction (Heritage) starts.  This is to prevent players from adjusting their later bids based on how strong or weak the hammer prices appear to be based on earlier auctions.

5.     All players are encouraged to bid on coins they’d really want in their collections.

6.     At the end of all the auctions, each player sums their winning bids.  “Best in Show” will be awarded to the player who successfully spent the highest percentage of their $100K on winning bids.  In the case of a tie, the winner will be the player who successfully won the most coins.

As of now, this contest would run on the honor system since there is no non-participating administrator who could receive all the bid lists and publish all of them simultaneously on Monday January 9th in a new topic.  Ideally, this site would be able to start a “private” topic to which everyone posts their bid lists and the topic is not displayed publicly until Monday January 9th, but I don’t think that’s possible.  I’m open to other suggestions for how to administer this game.

So that’s it.  Any interest out there?

[Nerosmyfavorite68]

What's the link to the auction?

[idesofmarch01]

7 minutes ago, Nerosmyfavorite68 said:

What's the link to the auction?

All the auctions are listed here:

https://www.sixbid.com/en

And here:

https://www.nyinc.info/events.php

 

[Limes]

Sounds like fun, and since the import duties and taxes are out, Im in. Maybe restitutor could create something as a secret topic?

Got to get my head around the auctions though, what a list.....! 

Edit: And if understand correctly, betting all the fantasy money on 1 coin, does not mean you win, right? I dont know how to properly say it in English, but say i did bid 100.000 on a 3000 hammer, the 93.000 is not part of the percentage you mention? 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Limes

[idesofmarch01]

38 minutes ago, Limes said:

Sounds like fun, and since the import duties and taxes are out, Im in. Maybe restitutor could create something as a secret topic?

Got to get my head around the auctions though, what a list.....! 

Edit: And if understand correctly, betting all the fantasy money on 1 coin, does not mean you win, right? I dont know how to properly say it in English, but say i did bid 100.000 on a 3000 hammer, the 93.000 is not part of the percentage you mention? 

Correct.

Here's an example: Every player will bid their entire $100K fantasy funds (there's no value in saving any).  Suppose you win four bids where the hammer price totals $57,000.  Your "score" would be 57%, since you successfully bid 57% of your $100K.

You could, of course, overbid your $100K on 20 coins that you know will hammer for at most a total of $40K, but then your score would only be 40%.  The goal is to efficiently allocate your fantasy bids to as many coins as you'd like to add to your collection.

[AncientJoe]

2 minutes ago, idesofmarch01 said:

Correct.

Here's an example: Every player will bid their entire $100K fantasy funds (there's no value in saving any).  Suppose you win four bids where the hammer price totals $57,000.  Your "score" would be 57%, since you successfully bid 57% of your $100K.

You could, of course, overbid your $100K on 20 coins that you know will hammer for at most a total of $40K, but then your score would only be 40%.  The goal is to efficiently allocate your fantasy bids to as many coins as you'd like to add to your collection.

Fun! That sounds like a fairly challenging game but one that will help hone pricing skills. I'll definitely join in.

[Di Nomos]

I'll join in too. Sounds like a fun challenge.

[Limes]

Bumping this. Is it still happening? Made a selection of coins, and before spending time researching the coins and deciding my max bids, I'd like to know if I'm not playing a solo game here 😉

[idesofmarch01]

I have my preliminary list prepared and will be tweaking it in the next few days!

[SteveJBrinkman]

I'm in.  A good way to practice precision bidding. 

[SteveJBrinkman]

If the player's max turns out to be the exact hammer price, is it a win?

[idesofmarch01]

5 minutes ago, SteveJBrinkman said:

If the player's max turns out to be the exact hammer price, is it a win?

Yes -- the best result possible.

I will be posting my fantasy bids in this thread as early as possible on Monday Jan. 9th since it won't be changing after that time.

[SteveJBrinkman]

@idesofmarch01 It's an interesting game with no prizes so the honor system is probably appropriate, but when will we compile the results, and how?  Should we message you our bids?

[Limes]

I will do some last minute adjustments this evening if necessary, and post my bids in this thread, with a short explanation.

I guess the chance of everyone bidding on the exact same coins is small, as there is a lot of material available. And even though the punt of fantasy money is huge, its surprising that it only allows bids on not that many coins! 

 

[idesofmarch01]

14 hours ago, SteveJBrinkman said:

@idesofmarch01 It's an interesting game with no prizes so the honor system is probably appropriate, but when will we compile the results, and how?  Should we message you our bids?

Since it's only a fantasy game, my thought was the following: On Monday I will post my fantasy bids to this thread (Auction, Lot# & Short Description, Max bid). When all of my fantasy bids have won or lost, I will make a second post showing my wins and losses, and calculate the percentage of my $100K budget that I successfully bid.  

I think all participants can follow this procedure including their final calculation.

Sound OK?

[Limes]

Its Sunday evening here, and since I dont want to get up in the middle of the night, you may already find my fantasy bids below. I chose five targets from a larger ‘watchlist’ of 40 coins. It surprised me that even though $ 100.000 is a huge amount of money to spend on coins, I ran out of it quite quickly...

So why these coins, and why only five targets? From the perspective of the game, its wiser to spread the amount one can spend over a larger group of coins of lower estimates; if one target is lost, the effect on the total amount is lower. But I decided to chose coins that I find really interesting and would go for, if the fantasy money was real money (rule no. 5). That’s also why the coins are Roman, and not, say, Greek; they match my interest and - albeit in a whole other range when it comes to price and quality - my current collection. Anyway, here are the targets:

1. Tetradrachm of Cleopatra VII of Egypt and Marc Antony / Heritage World Coin Auctions NYINC Signature Sale 3105, lot 32071

Estimate: 7.500 (start)
Max bid: 28.000

The Heritage auction offers three tetradrachms of Cleopatra and Marc Antony. This is the last of the three. I chose this one simply because I find this one the most attractive. I hope to put in a fairly strong bid; a comparable type sold for 22.000 in a 2021 Roma auction. However, a slightly better type sold for 65.000 in a 2022 CNG auction, and I'm afraid the slab on this one will attract the Slabpeople, who, although easily startled, will be back and with deeper pockets.

 2. Brutus, denarius, Cr. 500/7. Classical Numismatic Group, LLC Triton XXVI, lot 632.

 Estimate: 5.000
Max bid: 10.000

I currently own a beaten up specimen of this fascinating type. It goes without saying this one would be a more than awesome improvement. It sold in 2010 for CHF 6250. It will sell for more this time, although its difficult to predict. A XF type sold by Roma in 2022 brought 2800 GBP! Again, the slab in combination with the grading might attract the Slabpeople, so I hope 10k will be enough.

3. Nero; sestertius, arch. Classical Numismatic Group, LLC Triton XXVI, lot 703.

Estimate: 5.000
Max bid: 8.000

I’m a sucker for architectural types, so I had to include this splendid sestertius of Nero. In all honesty though, two things. First, if I had this kind of money, I would not buy this one but wait for a better example. There’s wear on the obverse and reverse, and the obverse is slightly dubble struck. But this fantasy game is limited to the January auctions. Second, I had doubt between going for this sestertius and the brutus denarius mentioned above, or the Julius Caesar XF aureus (loy 622). The latter however was already at 15.000 dollar pre-bid, so the risk would be too high that I would have been outbid. And it sold in 2020 for 11.000, so I do not want to be in the next Berk podcast with the dufus purchase.
Anyway, I would be more then happy to own this sestertius, and since I wont in real life, I will hopefully do so in Fantasy land. A better example sold in the recent Kunker auction for 7.000 EUR, so I’m “sure” 8.000 wil do.

 4. Trajan, aureus, ‘Forum Trajanus’ type / Classical Numismatic Group, LLC Triton XXVI, lot 754.

Estimate: 5000
Max bid: 10.000

Another great architectural type. If I had the money, this type would be high on my targetlist as well. Overall a lovely coin, with good details on the reverse. These issues are not very rare though and  appear in auction every now and then, which makes it easier to research prices. Types of comparable quality sold for up to 8.000, so I placed my max bid close to that. (Even in this fantasy game, I tend to think ‘there’s always another coin’).

 5. Septimius Severus, with Caracalla and Geta as Caesar. Aureus / Classical Numismatic Group, LLC Triton XXVI, lot 788

Estimate: 20.000
Max bid: 44.000

This absolutely mesmerizing dynastic aureus would be a must have for me. It sold in 2016 for 28.000 EUR, which I think is on the low side. I decided to go way above that, and am still in doubt if I’m not too low. Even though other XF aureui are available - with a variety of different portrait combinations - the quality of this specimen, the combination of Geta and Caracalla and knowing the find spot, make it a unique piece in my opinion. And yes, I would take it out of the slab without hesitation 😉 

 So, here it is, my list. I had fun compiling it, getting deeper into a coins history than normal, doing the research, contemplating bids and scaring my wife saying that these numbers are real numbers and real bids....

Best of luck to the other competitors, and curious to see other people’s lists!

 

 

[idesofmarch01]

38 minutes ago, Limes said:

Its Sunday evening here, and since I dont want to get up in the middle of the night, you may already find my fantasy bids below. I chose five targets from a larger ‘watchlist’ of 40 coins. It surprised me that even though $ 100.000 is a huge amount of money to spend on coins, I ran out of it quite quickly...

Great writeup -- thanks for starting us out!  One of the things I anticipated about this fantasy game is what you've already observed -- that maybe $100K doesn't go as far as you think it would!  

I'll post my list now, too, since I don't anticipate any more changes to my max bids.

1. Thasos AR stater, CNG/Triton XXVI, lot 84.  Max bid $15,000

2. Crete, Knossos AR stater, CNG/Triton XXVI, lot 177.  Max Bid $15,000

3. Claudius AE sestertius, CNG/Triton XXVI, lot 698.  Max Bid $15,000

4. Hadrian AV aureus, CNG/Triton XXVI, lot 762.  Max Bid $40,000

5. Caligula AE sestertius, Heritage 3106, lot 33240.  Max bid $15,000

Good luck everyone!

[Edessa]

Ok, I'll take a shot at these.

Triton XXVI, Lot 41. Sicily Entella, Punic issues. AR Tetradrachm $14,000.
Triton XXVI, Lot 430. Ptolemy II. AV Trichryson. $25,000.
Triton XXVI, Lot 1233. Alfred the Great. AR Penny. $21,500.
The New York Sale 57, Lot 4. Lucania, Poseidonia. AR Nomos. $21,500.
The New York Sale 57, Lot 22. Macedonia, Akanthos. AR Tetradrachm. $12,500.
The New York Sale 58, Lot 1181. Great Britian, Commonwealth Gold Unit of 20 Shillings, 1653. $5,500.

[Di Nomos]

All my bids come from CNG Triton XXVI. 

Lot 18. Metapontum Nomos - max bid:  $30,000

Lot 120. Phillip III Stater - Max bid: $22,000

Lot 133. Perseus 'Zoilos' Tetradrachm - Max bid: $40,000

Lot 407. Persia Siglos - Max bid:  $8 000

Wish I had a real $100,000 to spend, would love the Zoilos Perseus Tetradrachm. Anything else would be a bonus. 

Good luck with your bids.

 

 

[SteveJBrinkman]

Here are my max bids.  All denarii unless otherwise indicated.

Heritage Sale 3105

Lot 32066 – Denarius – Julius Caesar – Feb-Mar 44 BC RRC 480/6 ----$26,000

New York Sale #57

Lot 146 – Denarius – Antony & Octavian – 41BC - $5,100

Triton XXVI 
Lot 601 – Denarius Sulla - $2,800
Lot 602 – Poblicius - $2,900
Lot 632 – Brutus - $14,700
Lot 633 – Ahenobarbus - $65,00
Lot 637 – Marc Antony - $10,500
Lot 651 – Mark Antony Legion IX - $6,200
Lot 688 – Tiberius - $4,300
Lot 1246 – Elizabeth I Pattern Shilling – $21,000 
 

[Di Nomos]

On 1/9/2023 at 6:26 PM, Di Nomos said:

All my bids come from CNG Triton XXVI. 

Lot 18. Metapontum Nomos - max bid:  $30,000

Lot 120. Phillip III Stater - Max bid: $22,000

Lot 133. Perseus 'Zoilos' Tetradrachm - Max bid: $40,000

Lot 407. Persia Siglos - Max bid:  $8 000

Wish I had a real $100,000 to spend, would love the Zoilos Perseus Tetradrachm. Anything else would be a bonus. 

Good luck with your bids.

 

 

Lot 18: $32,500 ❌

Lot 120: $20,000 ✔️

Lot 133: $32,500 ✔️

Lot 407: $7500 ✔️

Total $60,000 or 60%.

I'm actually quite happy with that. My only blemish the first coin going one increment over. Interested to see other's results when auctions finished.

 

[Kazuma78]

This will be really interesting to see how it goes- I feel like prices have been generally soft so far in comparison to the last couple years. 

[Brennos]

On 1/8/2023 at 9:33 PM, idesofmarch01 said:

1. Thasos AR stater, CNG/Triton XXVI, lot 84.  Max bid $15,000

I must say i was shocked by your price !

It sold for $3000, at the opening price which I thought was already way too high. 

[idesofmarch01]

7 hours ago, Brennos said:

I must say i was shocked by your price !

It sold for $3000, at the opening price which I thought was already way too high. 

Yep, I'm no expert in Greek coins so without the guidance of a knowledgeable dealer I missed this one badly.

[Limes]

Here are my results:

1. Tetradrachm of Cleopatra VII of Egypt and Marc Antony / Heritage World Coin Auctions NYINC Signature Sale 3105, lot 32071

Estimate: 7.500 (start)
Max bid: 28.000
Result: 24.000

2. Brutus, denarius, Cr. 500/7. Classical Numismatic Group, LLC Triton XXVI, lot 632.

 Estimate: 5.000
Max bid: 10.000
Result: 16.000

3. Nero; sestertius, arch. Classical Numismatic Group, LLC Triton XXVI, lot 703.

Estimate: 5.000
Max bid: 8.000
Result: 5.000

4. Trajan, aureus, ‘Forum Trajanus’ type / Classical Numismatic Group, LLC Triton XXVI, lot 754.

Estimate: 5000
Max bid: 10.000
Result: 14.000

 5. Septimius Severus, with Caracalla and Geta as Caesar. Aureus / Classical Numismatic Group, LLC Triton XXVI, lot 788

Estimate: 20.000
Max bid: 44.000
Result: 32.500.

So, I managed to grab 3/5 with the fantasy money. For these tree, I had bid 80.000 and it actually cost me 61.500 fantasy dollars, which, in retrospect, I could have spend on the other two. Ah well, its easy to say that now of course 😉 So, for the final score, do I use my bids, or the prices realised? 

A coin I find quite appealing, was the XF aureus of Julius Caesar (lot 622). I just saw however, that it was withdrawn. Does anyone know what went on here?