The NYINC Auctions Fantasy Game

[idesofmarch01]

8 minutes ago, Limes said:

So, I managed to grab 3/5 with the fantasy money. For these tree, I had bid 80.000 and it actually cost me 61.500 fantasy dollars, which, in retrospect, I could have spend on the other two. Ah well, its easy to say that now of course 😉 So, for the final score, do I use my bids, or the prices realised?

So, of your $100,000 in fantasy funds, you successfully bid on coins that hammered for $61,500.  Your percentage is 61.5%, which seems pretty good so far.

[SteveJBrinkman]

OK, I didn't do so well on this.  My final score was 43% winnings.  "H:" is the hammer price.  My main weakness was over-estimating some of these.

All denarii unless otherwise indicated

Heritage Sale 3105

Lot 32066 – Denarius – Julius Caesar – Feb-Mar 44 BC RRC 480/6 -$26,000 H: 19,000 Won

New York Sale #57

Lot 146 – Denarius – Antony & Octavian – 41BC - $5,100 H: $5250 - Won

Triton XXVI 
Lot 601 – Denarius Sulla - $2,800 – H:2750 - Won
Lot 602 – Poblicius - $2,900 – H: $1150 - Won
Lot 632 – Brutus - $14,700 – H: 16000 – Lost 
Lot 633 – Ahenobarbus - $6500 – H: 4,250 - won
Lot 637 – Marc Antony - $10,500 – H: 6,000 Lost
Lot 651 – Mark Antony Legion IX - $6,200 – H: $8500 - Lost
Lot 688 – Tiberius - $4,300 – H: $2000 - won
Lot 1246 – Elizabeth Pattern Shilling – $21,000 – H: $1,1000 won
 

[Edessa]

On 1/8/2023 at 8:09 PM, Edessa said:

Ok, I'll take a shot at these.

Triton XXVI, Lot 41. Sicily Entella, Punic issues. AR Tetradrachm $14,000.
Triton XXVI, Lot 430. Ptolemy II. AV Trichryson. $25,000.
Triton XXVI, Lot 1233. Alfred the Great. AR Penny. $21,500.
The New York Sale 57, Lot 4. Lucania, Poseidonia. AR Nomos. $21,500.
The New York Sale 57, Lot 22. Macedonia, Akanthos. AR Tetradrachm. $12,500.
The New York Sale 58, Lot 1181. Great Britian, Commonwealth Gold Unit of 20 Shillings, 1653. $5,500.

Triton XXVI, Lot 41. Sicily Entella, Punic issues. AR Tetradrachm $14,000. Hammer $13,000. Won
Triton XXVI, Lot 430. Ptolemy II. AV Trichryson. $25,000. Hammer $37,500. Lost
Triton XXVI, Lot 1233. Alfred the Great. AR Penny. $21,500. Hammer $20,000. Won
The New York Sale 57, Lot 4. Lucania, Poseidonia. AR Nomos. $21,500. Hammer $82,500. Lost in Space.
The New York Sale 57, Lot 22. Macedonia, Akanthos. AR Tetradrachm. $12,500. Hammer No Sale. Won
The New York Sale 58, Lot 1181. Great Britian, Commonwealth Gold Unit of 20 Shillings, 1653. $5,500. Hammer $8,700. Lost

So, 46.5%. Lucania, Poseidonia AR Nomos was the biggest surprise, but it IS a pretty nice coin.

[idesofmarch01]

My results so far:

1. Thasos AR stater, CNG/Triton XXVI, lot 84.  Max bid $15,000.  WON.  Hammer $3,000.

2. Crete, Knossos AR stater, CNG/Triton XXVI, lot 177.  Max Bid $15,000.  WON.  Hammer $13,000.

3. Claudius AE sestertius, CNG/Triton XXVI, lot 698.  Max Bid $15,000.  WON.  Hammer $8,500.

4. Hadrian AV aureus, CNG/Triton XXVI, lot 762.  Max Bid $40,000.  WON.  Hammer $30,000.

5. Caligula AE sestertius, Heritage 3106, lot 33240.  Max bid $15,000

Total so far is $54,500 so my maximum possible score is 69.5%.  My overestimate on item #1 wasted a lot of my fantasy budget.

[AncientJoe]

My list was solely in Triton and I thought I did badly at first as I didn't get the hammer price exactly correct for some but then realized that if my estimate was a bit high, I'd have bought the coin, so that did count. As a result, I'm happy with my success rate. An alternate scoring strategy would be to measure how close to the hammer each guess was (ideally in absolute value so that going over isn't penalized, but I'm biased as it would increase my score!)

Lot 55: Guess 22K, hammer 19K Won (I couldn't bring myself to actually bid on this coin because of the flat head so I'm not surprised it went below the $20K estimate)

Lot 119: Guess 32.5K, hammer 32.5K Won (I based this on the pre-bid level of the Heritage example - it was at $35K the week prior to the auction but ended up selling for $36K: That said, I don't think these coins are worth nearly this much, despite owning one myself)

Lot 133: Guess 30K, hammer 32.5K Miss (This was just in Triton in 2020 and hammered for $25K there - someone clearly should have been paying attention a couple years ago if they were now willing to pay 30% more)

Lot 185: Guess 15.5K, hammer 13K Won (This type has been overpriced for a while and without a pedigree, I didn't think this would sell well and was correct - it was estimated at 20K)

So, that means I "spent" 64.5K/100K which is a decent average and indicates to me that the market has some degree of normalcy/predictability = some hope for buying this year!

Edited January 12, 2023 by AncientJoe

[idesofmarch01]

2 hours ago, AncientJoe said:

Lot 119: Guess 32.5K, hammer 32.5K Won

Wow.  Hit that one right on the nose.  Good bid!

It's starting to look as if 60%+ is a pretty good result.

[idesofmarch01]

On 1/12/2023 at 7:26 AM, idesofmarch01 said:

My results so far:

1. Thasos AR stater, CNG/Triton XXVI, lot 84.  Max bid $15,000.  WON.  Hammer $3,000.

2. Crete, Knossos AR stater, CNG/Triton XXVI, lot 177.  Max Bid $15,000.  WON.  Hammer $13,000.

3. Claudius AE sestertius, CNG/Triton XXVI, lot 698.  Max Bid $15,000.  WON.  Hammer $8,500.

4. Hadrian AV aureus, CNG/Triton XXVI, lot 762.  Max Bid $40,000.  WON.  Hammer $30,000.

5. Caligula AE sestertius, Heritage 3106, lot 33240.  Max bid $15,000

Total so far is $54,500 so my maximum possible score is 69.5%.  My overestimate on item #1 wasted a lot of my fantasy budget.

It appears that my final fantasy bid on item #5 won with a hammer price of $4,700.  So my total is $59,200 in my five successful bids for a 59.2% efficiency.

How did everyone else fare?

[Limes]

1 hour ago, idesofmarch01 said:

It appears that my final fantasy bid on item #5 won with a hammer price of $4,700.  So my total is $59,200 in my five successful bids for a 59.2% efficiency.

How did everyone else fare?

I don't have any more fantasy money in the game, so my 61,5% still stands 🙂