KenDorney

Anyone else out there experiencing auction exhaustion?  I know, it's that time of year for lots of auctions but with the market so strong and with so many new dealers there seems to be an auction just about every day now since the beginning of the year.  I just cant keep up.  And with prices so strong I get halfway through an auction without winning anything and I just give up and abandon the auction.  My interests are with Roman bronzes primarily, and there just isn't much out there priced reasonably.  So far this year I've only bought two, these below.  I only list the prices for the Otacilia as I found it interesting to see the price variation (in my mind I paid exactly what it was worth retail after commissions).  Also interesting to note that Heritage did not include all of the provenance for the Postumus (I think there is more, I had found this exact coin before in a couple other auctions but lost my notes).  This is interesting only to current discussions and illustrates how a cataloger finds one thing important and others not.  

Otacilia Severa, ex CNG 532, Lot 618, $130, ex Pars, $795, ex Kirk Davis, $425.  

Postumus, ex private purchase, ex Heritage 232237, Lot 63312, ex CNG 73, Lot 679, ex Tom Cederlind 121, Lot 282.

Its possible this is an innocent situation.  I had a similar problem with my last auction and Biddr.  My auction was hosted at VAuctions, but pre-bids were available through Biddr.  On biddr for some reason (an oversight?) one could bid in single dollars.  I dont recall the actual bids, so I'll give an example).  Two bidders, one at $100 and one at $101.  The $100 bid won.  The reason?  I had bid increments set for $5, so while $101 is technically more than $100 is was not enough to 'win'.  They would have had to bid $105 to win, and even then they may not have gotten is as I have no idea what the high bid was.  The losing bidder never did quite understand it, but these kind of issues to arise.

As for Timeline?  No idea.  Never bid with them.  They are like Heritage, the buyer fees are so absurdly high I simply wont bid.

2 hours ago, Hrefn said:

There is an old saying which states the law is an ass, and this UNESCO Convention is a fine example.  It asserts a legal right where there is no clear moral right.  In effect the ownership of cultural property is dependent on whose military has most recently seized the site of discovery.  Might makes right.

This right here explains much of the Gaza Hoard situation.  While many countries recognize Palestine, others dont and most could care less.  I'm sure there was a sort of opinion such as 'What are they gonna do about it?', or 'What can they do about it?'

How does this pertains to the two coins?  I dunno and nobody does at this point:  its all just speculation.  While I am sure there are a number of people who actually do know where and how they originated (or at least think they do) I am sure the prosecution doesn't and could not prove it under US law.  I suppose maybe they have some farmer from a small town on their witness list, but it seems to me it will be a difficult task.

2 minutes ago, DonnaML said:

I think if they can prove that the defendant paid someone to create a fake provenance, that may be enough for the finder of fact to be permitted to draw an inference that he received stolen property. He could remain silent, but if he has a legitimate explanation it would be wise for him to present it in his defense.

True, but he could also simply say he was creating some mystique in order to boost hammer prices.  Not much better of course, but I'm sure he can come up with a defense to that charge.

6 minutes ago, idesofmarch01 said:

Can theft and fraud be asserted in a criminal case without specifically stating from whom the theft occurred?  Can anyone clarify this issue?

It seems likely that they are simply assuming that without a specific provenance these coins must have been illegally found/looted/exported/etc and as such belong to the likely governments.  But again, how could they possibly prove that?  I'm not defending any shenanigans but it seems impossible that they could prove anything.  And if they do convict this has very serious ramifications for all of us since 99% of all coins and antiquities have no provenance whatsoever.

Loads of new things, but these two came in recently. 

Interesting, but little for us to really get into at the moment.  I'm having a tough time trying to figure out how they will prove the coin was 'stolen'.  They must have some sort of irrefutable provenance?  Without it the state will have a tough time getting conviction on the larceny and possession charges.  The conspiracy and fraud charges presumably are specifically relating to the provenance under which the coins were sold.  None of us know that scenario really, and that may also be hard to convict.  Just too little we know at the moment, but I read the charges in detail on Facebook and the prosecution seems very sure of themselves.

The majority of us feel this same pain.  It can be very difficult to get anything at auction these days.  My strategy has certainly changed, now I usually dont watch the auctions, I bid either the day before or just before the start of the auction (and I bid my maximum, not minimum).  There are so many these days that I just dont have the time to watch anything live anymore, and prices have meant that I dont even bother with some of the better auctions (many nice things at Leu coming up, but I think I will pass, I havent won anything from them for some time).

I also have some nostalgia about the old days of paper catalogs.  Those were the days!  But, humanity progresses and changes. This is what we have now.  Unless all the new collectors/investors/speculators lose interest this will become the new norm.

Anyway, I seem to get very little for my collection the last few years.  I did manage to get this Otacilia Severa sestertius at CNG last week.  Interesting to see the tags it came with.  Dealer A sold it for $425 in 2019.  Dealer B has a tag listed for $795 (but no note on what was paid, and could have sold before Dealer A), then last week I got it for $130.  After juice I think that is a fair retail price for the coin, so it wasnt a bargain.  Top photo is mine, bottom is CNG's.  Theirs has better definition than my photo but mine shows the color as it appears in hand.

A good quality Hadrian Dupondius with Pegasus.  Had one years ago which I foolishly sold.  Now, every time one comes up I simply miss it.  They are out there, but I cant seem to get one when I look!

It only took me a couple months, but I got around to breaking this one out of its plastic tomb.  I'll have to re-photograph it as there are a few plastic shards in the pic.  Also, it seems to just be me, but each and every time I cut and paste text onto this site it converts it into an attached image.  Sorry about that.  Maybe there is a setting somewhere I do not see?  I've never seen this on any website, so its new to me.

For some who have been around a bit you might remember James Pickering (@jamesicus on CoinTalk), who passed away last year.  I had sold some of his collection for him and his widow recently reached out to me to pass on the last few of his coins.  There are a dozen remaining, none of which I have gone through just yet.  His widow told me how towards the end he would take these out several times a day and view them, but didnt quite understand his obession with them (many of our spouses cannot!).  Anyway, I just thought I would show a couple pics and remember my conversations with him.  The first photo is exactly as they looked when I opened the case.

These crazy slab prices (and many non-slabs) are driven by the speculators.  These are not collectors buying these coins.  At least, very few collectors.  I know there are a few billionaires out there who genuinely collect ancients, but for the most part these are the same people who are buying up real estate, artwork, NFT's, Bitcoin, etc.  And like all those other markets this will crash as well.  The only way they can profit is to get more people into their market and pay more than they did, which likely will not happen.  There is a LOT of disposable money floating around in the world with many people looking to put it somewhere.  Oddly ancient coins got their attention, which I think is highly unusual.  

But, it will calm down at some point.  In a few years those who paid 10 times what the coin was worth will try to sell, and....I honestly dont think there will be anyone there to buy them.  It also makes one wonder, where will all these coins end up?  When people finally learn the truth will they just dump them back on the market or will they sit in a bank vault until the owners die?

Time will tell.

1 hour ago, Simon said:

I use MS word. Paste pic into doc, format picture, remove background then fill with color of choice. Easy. 

 

You can also do it with PowerPoint.

Quite a few coins are failing to sell at auction lately due to high reserve prices.  We are in a place right now where the market is either stabilizing or on the decline (time will tell which).  These failures to sell seem to be primarily limited to the better material, as moderate quality pieces seem to still be selling, but not as highly as before.  It's always nice to see some of these coins however, as many of them I would never be able to afford.

But, having just said that it just shows how I am unfamiliar.  I need a few days to look it over!  Seems like some interesting stuff there!

I dont know, I've tried Discord and its just, well, insanity!  Pretty sure it will never amount to much.  There is here, Cointalk (which is another level of insanity), Forvm (which is largely dead, here or Reddit.  Reddit seems a decent place but not really user friendly like here.

Honestly, Numisforums seems like the place going forward.  

Maybe a little late to this and not sure anyone else linked such an obvious choice:

4 minutes ago, Cordoba said:

How did you realize the fake ones were fake? I have 0 idea of how to detect forgeries for antiquities

For years I though they were genuine but after talking to a number of people who were a bit closer to the source than me I was convinced they were correct.  Its been many years, so I dont remember all the details.  They were very well made and convincing, but in the end I think someone did a Thermoluminescence test on them and they were modern.  Here is a link that has a few of them illustrated:

https://www.romulus2.com/lamps/fakes/fakes1.shtml#syrian

Since many are showing off their nice additions for the year I thought I would as well, though the number is very small.  It has not been a great year for adding anything to my collection, so what you see below is pretty much it (I do have a very nice Lucius Verus sestertius incoming).

A few thoughts.  This year seems to show that prices are remaining fairly high for many coins.  While I can see some softening of the market (likely due to fears of recession), higher grade coins still seem very strong.  One can surely get coins very cheaply when they are in lower grades or have problems, but any true 'good VF' or better is almost impossible to obtain at reasonable prices (as least what seems reasonable to me).  Luckily I am not caught up in obtaining the highest grade coins possible.  I am perfectly happy with worn coins, but for me they must have nice surfaces and patina.  Thus I am often able to find at least a few a year for the collection.  

I would be interested to hear what other thoughts are on the subject, from both a buyers and seller point of view.  This next year might be an interesting one, if only I had a crystal ball!

I have been getting less and less with CNG, so I didnt get anything in this one.  I am hopeful for the new auction which has a load of things I am interested in, but we will have to see where they end up on closing day!  As others have posted, I sold my antiquities collection which did fairly well.  @Cordoba, you will see your pot in the very center of the photo below, taken some 30 years ago.

11 hours ago, Octavius said:

Ken, I look forward to giving this little jug a nice new home!

I just found these pics, taken a little over 30 years ago (when I was young and had hair).  It shows some of my pottery collection at that time.  In the end I have kept the single-handled jug I am holding in the photo, a single piece to remind me of what once was.

BTW, a number of the lamps seen in the pic turned out to be false.  Some of them were from what is now known as the 'Syrian Group' of fake lamps which came on the market in the mid 1980's.

10 hours ago, Octavius said:

Ken, I look forward to giving this little jug a nice new home!

I think you will like it.  Its actually a larger piece.

I can use Abafil cases.  The may seem expensive at first, but they are very well built and hand-made.  Mine are about 30 years old and for the most part still look new.  Using trays also solves the issue of using those annoying brittle safety flips.  My only problem is that at some point I might want to have a cabinet built that will hold Abafil.

Over the decades I'd had many collecting themes but I am something like a distracted squirrel.  I cant seem to focus so at this point I simply buy whatever I like, regardless of grade or rarity.  95% of what I collect are large bronzes though.  I picked up this little gem at a local show this past weekend.  Was a real find.  Sadly its now in a slab, which I will break out eventually.  And I paid less than half of what it sold for at auction sixteen years ago!  This is that auction photo, from CNG:

3 hours ago, Roerbakmix said:

Was this the case?

I watched it close and it seems there were a few people waiting till the last few seconds to bid, but by the start of the auction most bids seem to have been placed.  In the end half a dozed went much higher than I would have thought, but most went rather cheaply.  In the end I think it averaged out to what I had expected, so I am happy with the results.  I think it would have done much better if they had half decent photographs.  They were pretty terrible and not up to their usual standards.