Faustina Friday – Comparing Two Marketing Strategies

[Roman Collector]

Friday felicitations, fellow Faustina fanatics! I hope you have a pleasant weekend studying and appreciating your treasures. This coin is my latest purchase, a denarius of the Pudicitia standing left, sacrificing over a lighted altar type.

Faustina II, 147-175 CE.
Roman AR denarius; 3.48 g, 17.2 mm, 6 h.
Rome, December 155 CE.
Obv: FAVSTINA AVG PII AVG FIL, bare-headed and draped bust, right (Beckmann Type 5 hairstyle).
Rev: PVDICITIA, Pudicitia standing left, dropping incense over lighted altar to left.
Refs: RIC 508c (corrected); BMCRE p. 165n*; RSC 181; RCV –; Strack 513; CRE –.
Notes: Ex Stack's Bowers Fall 2024, lot 74392, 31 October 2024; ex Berk B/B sale 213; lot 269, 19 November 2020; ex Berk 152, lot 289, 23 December 2007; ex Philip Ashton.

This coin has been sold twice in the past four years using two different auction firms and two different marketing strategies, which I term the "She's Rare" strategy and the "Ain't She Sweet?" strategy. In this week's installment, I'm going to explore each of these strategies and discuss the plusses and minuses of each strategy when selling a coin that is both rare and pretty but not in high demand. I cannot emphasize enough the role played by "not in high demand." Selling a portrait denarius of Julius Caesar in "Ch XF" requires little thought about marketing. But how best to market this particular coin wasn't an easy decision because of low demand for it. Faustina the Younger coins in general have only modest appeal. The empress is not one of the twelve Caesars, nor has she been a main character in any movie or popular book. Granted, she's a figure to be obtained by the "one of each emperor and his wife" collector, but the general Roman coin collector is not interested in any particular reverse type or obverse inscription, no matter how rare it may be. Usually, such a collector seeks a high-grade coin with a portrait of fine style and, if possible, an interesting reverse type. Faustina the Younger coins are plentiful in any denomination, and there are thousands of high-grade, pretty specimens to meet the demands of general Roman coin collectors. Only a specialist collector would actively seek a particular subtype of a particular reverse type, and how many such collectors are there for Faustina the Younger apart from me and @shanxi? I don't think it is an exaggeration to say that there are fewer than half a dozen collectors in the world who are actively seeking a specimen of RIC 508c (corrected), as opposed to the number of collectors who are simply seeking a pretty denarius of the wife of Marcus Aurelius.

When selling such a coin, do you target the handful of specialist collectors who might pay a premium for rarity or do you target the larger pool of general collectors who might pay a premium for beauty? These considerations aren't mutually exclusive, of course, but it's a rare auction firm that can successfully use both strategies simultaneously. Most of the time, the consignor must choose one or the other strategy. It comes down to a supply/demand calculation.

The She's Rare Strategy.
 

 

To use this strategy successfully, the consignor and the dealer must have intimate knowledge of how rare a particular variety might be and who might pay a premium for such a variety. Marketing consists of informing interested individuals who might be actively seeking to add the variety to their collections that the coin is available for purchase. This strategy emphasizes rarity in the hope that this consideration might increase demand to those few collectors who might be on the fence about purchasing the coin, particularly if the coin also has attractiveness in its favor. For this strategy to work, you have to have at least two collectors who are willing to pay a premium for the coin's rarity competing against each other at auction and this strategy could easily backfire. There might be only three specimens of a particular variety outside of museum collections, but if the only two collectors who care already have a specimen, nobody will pay a premium for the third one to appear on the private market. And if the firm does not have a large collector base to purchase the coin for its aesthetic properties, the coin might not sell at all at its reserve, or the consignor might take a loss.

In November 2020, the consignor opted to use the "She’s Rare" strategy and sold it at Harlan Berk's Buy or Bid sale. The coin had previously been sold at Berk in 2007. It's likely that the consignor in 2020 was the same collector who purchased the coin from Berk in 2007 because there are no records of the coin being sold at auction between 2007 and 2020, though this doesn't rule out one or more private sales during this time. The description in the 2020 Berk sale notes a Philip Ashton provenance. Ashton died in 2017 and it's likely that he was the one who purchased the coin in 2007, holding it in his collection until sold by his heirs.

The Berk company is well known in the ancient coin community and has very knowledgeable numismatists on its staff, such as @Phil Davis and @curtislclay. Curtis Clay's catalog description included citations to numerous references: RIC, BMCRE, Cohen, Strack and Moushmov's catalog of the Reka Devnia hoard. The sale listing emphasized that the coin had a rare obverse inscription for the type and its scant representation in European museum collections as cataloged by Strack. The listing included a photo that did not do the coin justice and noted a grade of "MS." I did not participate as a bidder in that sale and I was unaware at the time that there were the four varieties of this coin. The coin sold for $385, not including the 4% credit card fee and shipping. Here's the listing.



The Ain't She Sweet Strategy
 

To use this strategy successfully, you must be of the opinion that collectors care more about beauty than about the rarity of a "flyspeck" variety, which is not an unreasonable opinion, as I've discussed above. A popular notion, particularly among ancient coin collectors in the US, is that the US represents an expanding market for ancient coins, and that general collectors in the US entering the field of ancient numismatics demand (and are comforted by) certified, high-grade material such as they have become accustomed to in the course of collecting modern coins. Those who employ this strategy bet that getting a high-grade coin certified and encapsulated by a TPG service and consigning it to a huge firm with tens of thousands of well-heeled customers is the best way to maximize the hammer price.

In October 2024, the consignor (probably the collector who purchased it from Berk in 2020, but not necessarily) opted to use the "Ain't She Sweet" strategy and sold it at Stack's Bowers Galleries Fall 2024 sale. Stack's Bowers Galleries is a very large American coin firm with offices around the globe. The company's website emphasizes that it sells rare US coins and currency and has sold some of the most valuable US collections ever assembled. Thousands of well-heeled collectors participate in its auctions and the firm boasts that it once received "the highest price ever realized at auction for a rare coin, the 1794 Flowing Hair Silver Dollar graded Specimen-66 (PCGS) that realized over $10 million." Stack's Bowers also handles world coins and currency, as well as ancients.

To prepare the coin for sale, the firm encouraged the consignor to slab it and submitted it to NGC Ancients on the seller's behalf. The consignor had to pay for this, either directly or indirectly in the form of a consignor's fee.



In addition to the photos of the slab, with "Ch XF" in bold type, the auction listing included a high-quality photo of the coin.



But note the listing itself misidentifies the coin as the more common RIC 508A/Cohen 184, and not the rare FAVSTINA AVG PII AVG FIL obverse type, and notes, consistent with the "Ain't She Sweet" strategy, the coin is "a charming, lustrous Denarius struck in rather high relief." It had a starting bid of $80, and its $100 - $200 estimate was only one-third of what it had brought when it was sold by Berk in 2020.



In short, this was a misattributed coin with an estimate of a third of its previous hammer price at a venue that doesn't specifically cater to ancient coin collectors. This was a recipe for disaster and the coin hammered for $140, for a total of $168 including the buyer's commission. Granted, it brought the estimate, but when one considers the cost of slabbing the coin and the seller's fee, it's unlikely the consignor received even $100 for a coin that cost ~ $400 in 2020. That's a $300 loss or more.

What Went Wrong?

I'm sure you have some theories about this, and I hope you'll share them in this thread. One might argue that the high price obtained by Berk in 2020 was an anomaly and the $140 hammer price for this coin was the coin's true market value and well within the "$100 – $200" estimate. But keep in mind that I had entered a maximum bid on the coin that was much higher than the hammer price because I "needed" this rare variety for my collection. Had another Antonine specialist competed against me for the coin, it's a certainty that the coin would have hammered for several-fold more.

I think the biggest issue was that the auction firm's clientele – almost entirely collectors of modern coins – was not sufficiently impressed by the coin's appearance to pay a premium for beauty. The participants in the auction didn't think she was all that and a bag of chips.



It wasn’t sufficient for the coin to be graded by NGC as "Ch XF" and for the coin to be described as "charming" and "lustrous." There are literally thousands of Ch XF denarii of Faustina the Younger to be had if you are simply looking for a coin to fill the Faustina Junior hole in your general Roman collection. Yes, she's sweet. Yes, there's a "Ch XF" in bold type right there on the pretty new slab. But the coin doesn't stand out from the others. The flan has a couple of splits and is not particularly circular. The strike is a bit off center. The reverse type is admittedly very boring. The coin was misattributed, its rarity and provenance were not mentioned, and its previous sale price was ignored.

How much did ignoring this last consideration play a role? Should the starting price have been $300 with an estimate of "$400 - $500"? There's a good chance the coin would not have sold at that venue. Unless you cared that the FAVSTINA AVG PII AVG FIL variety was struck only in the last few weeks of 155 CE before the obverse inscription changed to FAVSTINA AVGVSTA PII AVG F on 1 January 156 and that the coin is one of only two specimens outside of museum collections to have sold in the past 25 years, you would not have paid a premium above the generic slabbed Ch XF Faustina II denarius price. And that's what happened here. I think it was sold at the wrong venue using the wrong strategy. I think the consignor would have done better to go with a firm that caters specifically to ancient coin collectors and which would have included the relevant details about the coin's provenance, rarity, and significance within the context of Antonine coinage. There are many such firms, but Harlan J. Berk, CNG, Leu, Naumann, and Nomos come to mind.

As always, post coins, comments, and anything you feel is relevant!

 

Edited December 7, 2024 by Roman Collector
Spelling.

[CPK]

Excellent analysis @Roman Collector. For many coins, it is a gamble and one never knows for sure which strategy would be best. In this case, I agree that the coin, though quite attractive, simply didn't have enough to market solely on eye appeal alone - at least not if one wanted to maximize its potential. Unless the coin has a TPG rating of MS 5/5 * don't count on it doing extremely well at places like Stack's and Heritage.

On the other side of the coin 😉, I think Harlan J. Berk's prices are sometimes rather high, and even if the coin had been resold through Berk again, or another firm catering to collectors of ancient coins such as CNG, I could well see it falling short of the ~$400 it sold for in 2020. As you say, specialist coins are tough because the pool of potentially interested bidders is so small.

[Roman Collector]

35 minutes ago, CPK said:

Excellent analysis @Roman Collector. For many coins, it is a gamble and one never knows for sure which strategy would be best. In this case, I agree that the coin, though quite attractive, simply didn't have enough to market solely on eye appeal alone - at least not if one wanted to maximize its potential. Unless the coin has a TPG rating of MS 5/5 * don't count on it doing extremely well at places like Stack's and Heritage.

On the other side of the coin 😉, I think Harlan J. Berk's prices are sometimes rather high, and even if the coin had been resold through Berk again, or another firm catering to collectors of ancient coins such as CNG, I could well see it falling short of the ~$400 it sold for in 2020. As you say, specialist coins are tough because the pool of potentially interested bidders is so small.

Exactly! On any given day, a coin might sell for $400 or fail to sell for $120. 

[seth77]

Reading about a few more disappointments at auction by consignors this year, I think this coin might fit into a market correction after the covid money era. I will never forget auctions in 2021 and 2022 with common Severan denarii, not FDC, but beautiful enough, going for 5-600 hammer. There are of course some special coins regardless of rarity that will sell for covid prices and more, but it seems that this one is not in that bracket anymore. Maybe not beautiful enough, maybe not interesting enough, maybe treated too casually by the auction venue, lacking a story that might add interest - like the pedigree, the exact attribution, a short discussion on historical meaning etc. Maybe all of these + the fact that the auction venue might not be on the radar for some ancient collectors. I'll also add a note: all of us anti plastic coffin collectors are a bit vindicated for frowning at what seemed to become an almost scam-like fad, leaking over from modern collectors.

[ominus1]

3 hours ago, seth77 said:

covid prices

While in Cairo, Mansa Musa met with the Sultan of Egypt, and his caravan spent and gave away so much gold that the overall value of gold decreased in Egypt for the next 12 years. Stories of his fabulous wealth even reached Europe.Oct 19, 2023