What Does the Future Look Like in Regards to Inflation for Common Gold & Bullion Coins, & the Ancient Coin Market ?

[robinjojo]

Santa Clara County, California, where I live has a pretty high sales tax at 9.13%. 

However bullion and coins comprised of gold or silver  purchases $1,500 (single transaction) and over are sales tax exempt in California.  However, eBay does not always apply this exemption, so the buyer needs to contact Customer Service to sort that out.

[Severus Alexander]

Very helpful dataset, @Curtisimo.  If anyone knows where to find the same dataset for Canada, please let me know!  (Probably by pm, though I suppose you could drop it in the thread for the few [but dedicated!] Canucks we have here.)

Here's a coin with a sort-of house on it:

(Anyone have a coin with a house for actual people?)

[Al Kowsky]

26 minutes ago, LouisvilleKYShop said:

As for ancient collectors, I have been wondering as I send out envelopes.  What state is the best to live in to buy ancient coins online?  The amount of money people pay for a coin varies so much from state to state based on internet sales tax.  I don't know if the VCOINS people have to do this, but eBay automatically takes out the money and I never see it except for the invoice I get a hint and it is wildly different.  So top states to live in as an ancient collector?

L.KYShop, If you're buying online what difference does it make 😕?

[KenDorney]

On 7/18/2022 at 3:12 AM, Al Kowsky said:

You make some excellent points in your assessment ☺️! Supply chain issues, especially boat shipments & trucking have had a strong negative affect on prices. Many retailers have used the supply chain issues to price gouge their customers 😧. While shopping at Aldi's two days ago, the price of a 32 oz. container of Half & Half was $3.49; two weeks earlier that same size container was $1.79. That's price gouging 😠! The spot price of platinum last Friday closed at $867.00 an oz., not $1,200.00 an oz. 😉. Will we experience the same inflation Germany did in the 1920s, I hope not, but anything is possible... 

I don't buy the supply chain or shipment disruption arguments.  A completely unscientific test is very easy. I live fairly close to a major port.  Every time I have driven past in the last three years I have seen no change.  No trucks backed up waiting to load cargo, no ships anchored or even waiting to offload said cargo.  There are no more or less trucks on the highways.  What I see is business as usual.  Also in the last few years, aside from toilet paper, I have had no problems buying any product at all.  Nothing. Shelves are stocked, there is no lack of anything.  Again, unscientific, but I think it holds fairly true.  I bought a new car over the weekend.  True, the lots are largely empty, but its not really a problem, there are always new cars each week.  There just seems to be increased demand for them.  It seems to me that we are seeing an increase in greed from top to bottom. People are using this as a way to increase price and profits.

How do ancient coin prices fit into all this?  Hard to say.  The market has been remarkably changed and influenced by an influx of new buyers (I wont call them collectors just yet, as we dont really know how many are purely speculating).  There are three options though.  Prices stabilize to a new norm, they keep going up or back down.  Nobody can know which, but we can all guess and one will be correct.  Inflation is a beast of its own, but coin prices are determined very differently being driven primarily by supply and demand (though obviously inflation does factor in).

Neat discussion.  I have enjoyed reading it, though I didnt see any mention of politics in the earlier posts (not that I wanted to).

[KenDorney]

31 minutes ago, LouisvilleKYShop said:

As for ancient collectors, I have been wondering as I send out envelopes.  What state is the best to live in to buy ancient coins online?  The amount of money people pay for a coin varies so much from state to state based on internet sales tax.  I don't know if the VCOINS people have to do this, but eBay automatically takes out the money and I never see it except for the invoice I get a hint and it is wildly different.  So top states to live in as an ancient collector?

I have no idea what is best, but there certainly is a worst (Minnesota).  Currently on VCoins the system adds in the tax for us but we are responsible for paying it to our state.  At some point in the future sales taxes / VAT will become more standardized and most will have to pay.  The EU and UK now demand that we collect and pay taxes to them at a certain threshold.  

[Al Kowsky]

1 minute ago, KenDorney said:

I don't buy the supply chain or shipment disruption arguments.  A completely unscientific test is very easy. I live fairly close to a major port.  Every time I have driven past in the last three years I have seen no change.  No trucks backed up waiting to load cargo, no ships anchored or even waiting to offload said cargo.  There are no more or less trucks on the highways.  What I see is business as usual.  Also in the last few years, aside from toilet paper, I have had no problems buying any product at all.  Nothing. Shelves are stocked, there is no lack of anything.  Again, unscientific, but I think it holds fairly true.  I bought a new car over the weekend.  True, the lots are largely empty, but its not really a problem, there are always new cars each week.  There just seems to be increased demand for them.  It seems to me that we are seeing an increase in greed from top to bottom. People are using this as a way to increase price and profits.

How do ancient coin prices fit into all this?  Hard to say.  The market has been remarkably changed and influenced by an influx of new buyers (I wont call them collectors just yet, as we dont really know how many are purely speculating).  There are three options though.  Prices stabilize to a new norm, they keep going up or back down.  Nobody can know which, but we can all guess and one will be correct.  Inflation is a beast of its own, but coin prices are determined very differently being driven primarily by supply and demand (though obviously inflation does factor in).

Neat discussion.  I have enjoyed reading it, though I didnt see any mention of politics in the earlier posts (not that I wanted to).

Ken, Thanks for the input ☺️. Not only have I suspected "price gouging" but I've seen it first-hand many times.

[robinjojo]

I am sure price gouging is going on. 

As far as shipping issues, there was a huge backlog of shipping containers at the ports of LA and Long Beach for many months.  I understand that this issue is being resolved.  

[Restitutor]

Will contribute to this thread now as "me" vs. "admin me" 😄

Anecdotally, I find myself putting more money into ancients lately vs. the market. While I do not believe the recession fears will materialize based off what I see in my job working in finance (this is just my opinion), the market volatility has me re-prioritizing where I spend my money. I don't say that to mean I'm not continuing to invest in equities (still in my 30s so this recent volatility is immaterial in the long run) but the domino effect does seem to be impacting coin prices. So, buy low, sell .... well, I never intend on selling, but you get the point! The coin market does provide a 2-for-1 opportunity in my PoV if you can get one for a steal, in that if you ever need to sell, you have a tangible item at your fingertips. It's nice having a hobby that does seem to provide some financial security if things ever turned for the worst. Even if you had to sell at a financial loss, you still had the benefit of owning a piece of history for however long you held on to the coin(s). 

So, overall I wouldn't be surprised if we continue to see some mild softening in coin price, but also won't be surprised when the market starts going back up again that coin prices go up as well. Overall, seems like a great time to buy and be on the lookout for deals!

Editing to add on: my other expensive hobby, LEGO, recently announced a pretty hefty price increase averaging in the double digits. The nice thing with ancient coins is no company can just jack up all the prices, so even more incentive to re-allocate funds away from certain other hobbies and into this one!

[LouisvilleKYShop]

Al Kowsky:

You write that if a person is selling online what is the difference?  I charge $2 per envelope to the USA anywhere.  I had a buyer last week with a coin purchase adding up to $115.27 and his invoice shows he needs to pay $117.27.  I throw in the insurance free and clearly the 10 inch envelope is more than $2 to ship but I feel people bid more if I keep it at $2 forever for all coins purchased in a short span of time.  And today I have a different buyer from Minnesota.  There price of the coins is similar, $116.37.  But their invoice says $127.28.  I'll only see $118.37 in my account, eBay sends Minnesota the rest.  And in return Minnesota must have better schools, better roads, and overall be a better place to live than the first buyers address.  The Minnesota person comes out better with all the services the extra tax provides.  Hopefully?

 

[Walter]

5 hours ago, LouisvilleKYShop said:

As for ancient collectors, I have been wondering as I send out envelopes.  What state is the best to live in to buy ancient coins online?  The amount of money people pay for a coin varies so much from state to state based on internet sales tax.  I don't know if the VCOINS people have to do this, but eBay automatically takes out the money and I never see it except for the invoice I get a hint and it is wildly different.  So top states to live in as an ancient collector?

New Hampshire and Delaware - no sales tax

[Al Kowsky]

On 7/19/2022 at 8:02 PM, LouisvilleKYShop said:

Al Kowsky:

You write that if a person is selling online what is the difference?  I charge $2 per envelope to the USA anywhere.  I had a buyer last week with a coin purchase adding up to $115.27 and his invoice shows he needs to pay $117.27.  I throw in the insurance free and clearly the 10 inch envelope is more than $2 to ship but I feel people bid more if I keep it at $2 forever for all coins purchased in a short span of time.  And today I have a different buyer from Minnesota.  There price of the coins is similar, $116.37.  But their invoice says $127.28.  I'll only see $118.37 in my account, eBay sends Minnesota the rest.  And in return Minnesota must have better schools, better roads, and overall be a better place to live than the first buyers address.  The Minnesota person comes out better with all the services the extra tax provides.  Hopefully?

 

L.KYShop, When buying from a variety of out-of-state sellers you have to factor in sales tax along with shipping & handling. It's no different if you are bidding on lots from the different auction houses. I like to bid at auctions & usually submit many low bids hoping to find a sleeper, & more often than not it pays-off ☺️.

[LouisvilleKYShop]

Al Kowsky;

I do understand.  Now some coins trade like bullion, Athena owl, 1/12th stater of Miletos etc.  Everyone knows exactly the price range the coin is worth.  You factor in the added tax for you state and bid the correct price for the coins worth.  A person with no sales tax factors in the same price without a sales tax.  To me the second person is bidding higher and wins the coins. Overseas is worse affected, England who I used to sell to all the time, with their 20% thing even if it is valid or not as they tell me, England is practically gone for me.  They still bid but seldom win.