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What Does the Future Look Like in Regards to Inflation for Common Gold & Bullion Coins, & the Ancient Coin Market ?


Al Kowsky
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It's probably a good idea to define what inflation is 🤔. The way I see it is, there are two definitions to inflation, an old & a new definition. The old definition was "the amount of paper currency exceeding the amount of backing behind the currency", & that backing used to be gold in reserves or any commodity with an established & stable value like oil (in ancient Rome it was olive oil & today it's motor oil 🤣). The new definition is "the amount of paper currency chasing goods & services with no regard to a physical backing of any kind". The new definition relies on the honesty & credit worthiness of the entity issuing the paper currency. If we perceived the value of gold with the "old" definition of inflation the price of gold should be soaring right now, however, just the opposite is occurring, so why is this happening 🤨? It appears investors still have enough faith in the value of paper currency to put their money into investments that yield more paper currency, like T-bills, stocks & bonds ☺️. But how long will this trend continue 😏? I've recently noticed a slight decline in values of ancient coins from the major auction houses world-wide, never the less, the ancient coin market still looks strong. What are the thoughts of fellow members of NVMIS FORVMS in regards to inflation & the current market trends ☺️?

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This might sound a tangential reply but it's hard to get close to live indices of comparables.

Bloomberg highlight luxury watches a canary in the coalmine. I know there's  no direct correlation between a tetradrachm and a luxury watch but it's an  indicator  of propensity to spend, especially as so many comments are oh the rich will always spend....

Article here.

Also there were some real spots of weakness in the ancients (not coin) auctions in London  recently. Again not a direct comparison, but close.

Maybe these 2 examples are too  top end  to  be of use to  us,  but at least  it is a counter to the comments that  the $9 trillion (or whatever it is) of wealth "destruction" this year is  irrelevant.

In my little Sicilian niche it's too soon to tell, but there is a little softness.

 

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4 hours ago, Al Kowsky said:

If we perceived the value of gold with the "old" definition of inflation the price of gold should be soaring right now, however, just the opposite is occurring, so why is this happening 🤨?

This is why

326996614_Screenshot_20220717-134246_SamsungInternet.jpg.5a38b08badaf8fa16708ad8e4c4fb92e.jpg

Along with gold is heavily manipulated by the paper market. The charade can't be kept up forever. Central banks know high gold price is an indication of a dying currency, and they will do whatever it takes to keep the status quo.

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20 minutes ago, Celator said:

This is why

326996614_Screenshot_20220717-134246_SamsungInternet.jpg.5a38b08badaf8fa16708ad8e4c4fb92e.jpg

Along with gold is heavily manipulated by the paper market. The charade can't be kept up forever. Central banks know high gold price is an indication of a dying currency, and they will do whatever it takes to keep the status quo.

Celator, That's an interesting theory that has a lot of meat on it 🤔.

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2 hours ago, Deinomenid said:

This might sound a tangential reply but it's hard to get close to live indices of comparables.

Bloomberg highlight luxury watches a canary in the coalmine. I know there's  no direct correlation between a tetradrachm and a luxury watch but it's an  indicator  of propensity to spend, especially as so many comments are oh the rich will always spend....

Article here.

Also there were some real spots of weakness in the ancients (not coin) auctions in London  recently. Again not a direct comparison, but close.

Maybe these 2 examples are too  top end  to  be of use to  us,  but at least  it is a counter to the comments that  the $9 trillion (or whatever it is) of wealth "destruction" this year is  irrelevant.

In my little Sicilian niche it's too soon to tell, but there is a little softness.

 

D.menid, Thanks for expressing your opinion along with the Bloomberg article 😊. I frequently read the Bloomberg take on precious metals & other investments on the KITCO website. Let's be honest, luxury watches are the domain of the wealthy, middle-class people like most of the members on this website, park their discretionary funds on collectables & precious metals. No doubt the wealthy have been "hosed" too, especially the ones who had lots of stock holdings & real estate. The current measure of inflation is 9.1%, if that's an accurate number we all have cause for concern 😔.

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I have always hated thinking about economics (the dismal science indeed, as far as I'm concerned).  All I know is that I'm glad I've been putting discretionary funds in ancient coins, antiquities, and some numismatic gold (not bullion) during the last few years, instead of in cryptocurrency and NFT's. Because whatever happens, none of what I own is likely to go down to zero!

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Posted (edited)

The inflation we are experiencing, at a 40 year high, has been fueled a few factors, in my view: 1) demand for goods and services that are in short supply, due to supply chain issues such as shipping and labor shortages; 2) global conflicts affecting, especially, food and energy; 3) inflationary expectations of the public (deflationary expectations can also occur, such as in the 1930s); 4) the pandemic - manufacturers, such as chip makers, reduced output at the peak of COVID - only to be caught flat footed when the economy surged in the second half of 2020 and 2021; 5) rising interest rates on loans and rising costs of materials/labor (previously mentioned) which companies pass on to consumers; and 6) environmental changes are creating widespread droughts, floods, intense storms, heatwaves and wildfires that negatively impacted crop yields, driving up food prices, particularly for poorer countries, but the impact has been global.

Now the metals traded on international markets, gold and silver, are pegged to the dollar, which has been very strong lately, due to rising interest rates in the US and troubles abroad.  Silver is trading right now at around $18 an ounce.  It was higher a few months ago at around $23 - $24 and ounce. Gold has not fared very well either and platinum, last I checked, was around $1,200 and ounce, losing ground over the past year or so.

I mentioned inflationary expectations among the public.  I think this expectation fuels the demand for silver bullion coin, which I follow, and gold coins as well I assume.  I was looking at Mexican onzas the other day, and they are selling on eBay at around $40 or more.  That's quite a spread when one looks at the trading range on the metal exchanges.  In the past, say a couple of years ago, the spread was not nearly as wide.  Back in 2019 - 2020 an onza could be purchased for around $24 - $24, with silver trading at around $15 or so.  Clearly the psychology of inflation expectation is playing a role in the tremendous recent runup of bullion prices.

At the same time, due to the US dollar's strength, the Euro and British Pound have taken a hit, with the Euro trading on July 14 for a few hours at below parity with the US dollar.  Now it is trading very slightly over parity.  As I mentioned higher interest rates and political situations overseas have been driving, primarily, the rise of the US dollar. So, if you are a US collector, and you've had an eye on a coin being offered in the EU or UK, this might be the time to consider purchasing it.  Of course the future is unknowable, so swings, some possibly significant, can happen in both directions.

As for collector coins, the rule that quality speaks always applies, as well as rarity and desirability.  Sure, coin prices could collapse if we have another 1930s depression or they could go totally stratospheric if we have a 1920s style German inflation, but the likelihood of those extremes occurring are remote, so coin prices should generally appreciate, with the occasional dip when a hoard or major collection hits the market, but then those are good time to buy coins, particularly if they were previously very scarce or rare.

This is not a rare coin, but one that is apparently part of a large hoard that has been entering the ancients market for many months.  This coin came out of Roma's E-sale 99, lot 27.  I've been looking for a decent type example of this beautiful coinage.  Note the apparent casting sprue that broke off the flan, probably when the flan was removed from the mold.  

Calabria, Tarentum AR Nomos. Circa 275-235 BC. Sy- and Lykinos, magistrates. Nude youth on horseback to left, crowning horse that raises left foreleg; ΣY above, ΛΥKΙ-ΝΟΣ in two lines below / Taras astride dolphin to left, brandishing trident, wearing chlamys around shoulders and left arm; owl standing to left in right field, TAPAΣ below. Vlasto 836-841; HN Italy 1025; SNG ANS 1165. 6.47g, 19mm, 1h.

Catalogue Image

 

 

Edited by robinjojo
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5 hours ago, DonnaML said:

I have always hated thinking about economics (the dismal science indeed, as far as I'm concerned).  All I know is that I'm glad I've been putting discretionary funds in ancient coins, antiquities, and some numismatic gold (not bullion) during the last few years, instead of in cryptocurrency and NFT's. Because whatever happens, none of what I own is likely to go down to zero!

I agree, economics can be a dismal science 🤨, especially when the "math gurus" get involved 🤓, concocting complex mathematical formulas using M1 & M2 data. I've been told my perception of inflation is simple to the point of being immature 🙄, but it has worked for me 😊. I also feel comfortable where I've been putting my discretionary spending the last two decades. It's important to remember not to put "all your eggs in one basket", or too many eggs in one basket 😉. I learned that lesson 15 years ago buying platinum bullion. When the spot price rose to $2,200.00 an oz. in 2008 I was overjoyed 😂, but when the price started collapsing no one wanted to touch it ☹️. I was able to unload most of it around $1,000.00 an oz., taking a serious loss 😞.

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5 hours ago, robinjojo said:

The inflation we are experiencing, at a 40 year high, has been fueled a few factors, in my view: 1) demand for goods and services that are in short supply, due to supply chain issues such as shipping and labor shortages; 2) global conflicts affecting, especially, food and energy; 3) inflationary expectations of the public (deflationary expectations can also occur, such as in the 1930s); 4) the pandemic - manufacturers, such as chip makers, reduced output at the peak of COVID - only to be caught flat footed when the economy surged in the second half of 2020 and 2021; and 5) rising interest rates on loans and rising costs of materials/labor (previously mentioned) which companies pass on to consumers.

Now the metals traded on international markets, gold and silver, are pegged to the dollar, which has been very strong lately, due to rising interest rates in the US and troubles abroad.  Silver is trading right now at around $18 an ounce.  It was higher a few months ago at around $23 - $24 and ounce. Gold has not fared very well either and platinum, last I checked, was around $1,200 and ounce, losing ground over the past year or so.

I mentioned inflationary expectations among the public.  I think this expectation fuels the demand for silver bullion coin, which I follow, and gold coins as well I assume.  I was looking at Mexican onzas the other day, and they are selling on eBay at around $40 or more.  That's quite a spread when one looks at the trading range on the metal exchanges.  In the past, say a couple of years ago, the spread was not nearly as wide.  Back in 2019 - 2020 an onza could be purchased for around $24 - $24, with silver trading at around $15 or so.  Clearly the psychology of inflation expectation is playing a role in the tremendous recent runup of bullion prices.

At the same time, due to the US dollar's strength, the Euro and British Pound have taken a hit, with the Euro trading on July 14 for a few hours at below parity with the US dollar.  Now it is trading very slightly over parity.  As I mentioned higher interest rates and political situations overseas have been driving, primarily, the rise of the US dollar. So, if you are a US collector, and you've had an eye on a coin being offered in the EU or UK, this might be the time to consider purchasing it.  Of course the future is unknowable, so swings, some possibly significant, can happen in both directions.

As for collector coins, the rule that quality speaks always applies, as well as rarity and desirability.  Sure, coin prices could collapse if we have another 1930s depression or they could go totally stratospheric if we have a 1920s style German inflation, but the likelihood of those extremes occurring are remote, so coin prices should generally appreciate, with the occasional dip when a hoard or major collection hits the market, but then those are good time to buy coins, particularly if they were previously very scarce or rare.

This is not a rare coin, but one that is apparently part of a large hoard that has been entering the ancients market for many months.  This coin came out of Roma's E-sale 99, lot 27.  I've been looking for a decent type example of this beautiful coinage.  Note the apparent casting sprue that broke off the flan, probably when the flan was removed from the mold.  

Calabria, Tarentum AR Nomos. Circa 275-235 BC. Sy- and Lykinos, magistrates. Nude youth on horseback to left, crowning horse that raises left foreleg; ΣY above, ΛΥKΙ-ΝΟΣ in two lines below / Taras astride dolphin to left, brandishing trident, wearing chlamys around shoulders and left arm; owl standing to left in right field, TAPAΣ below. Vlasto 836-841; HN Italy 1025; SNG ANS 1165. 6.47g, 19mm, 1h.

Catalogue Image

 

 

You make some excellent points in your assessment ☺️! Supply chain issues, especially boat shipments & trucking have had a strong negative affect on prices. Many retailers have used the supply chain issues to price gouge their customers 😧. While shopping at Aldi's two days ago, the price of a 32 oz. container of Half & Half was $3.49; two weeks earlier that same size container was $1.79. That's price gouging 😠! The spot price of platinum last Friday closed at $867.00 an oz., not $1,200.00 an oz. 😉. Will we experience the same inflation Germany did in the 1920s, I hope not, but anything is possible... 

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The specter of inflation is to be expected at intervals during business cycles. One could argue that inflation is a good thing for workers since they will receive higher wages, which improves their long term position. Note that in this past 11 year cycle of low interest rates and little inflation that wages did not keep up with even the meager inflation experienced during that time. The Treasury is already talking about increasing the Social Security COLA to 9 to 10% for 2023.

Also,  agree that supply chain issues (the bullwhip effect, coined by professor Hau Lee at Stanford) are magnified when uncertainly strikes, adding another factor that can accelerate inflationary pressures.  

Edited by Ancient Coin Hunter
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25 minutes ago, Ancient Coin Hunter said:

The specter of inflation is to be expected at intervals during business cycles. One could argue that inflation is a good thing for workers since they will receive higher wages, which improves their long term position. Note that in this past 11 year cycle of low interest rates and little inflation that wages did not keep up with even the meager inflation experienced during that time. The Treasury is already talking about increasing the Social Security COLA to 9 to 10% for 2023.

Also,  agree that supply chain issues (the bullwhip effect, coined by professor Hau Lee at Stanford) are magnified when uncertainly strikes, adding another factor that can accelerate inflationary pressures.  

All of us retired people would welcome a raise of 9-10%, but it sounds too good to be true 🙄.

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While there are certainly shorter term factors such as supply chain disruption, energy costs, etc, it seems we've been creating the "too much money chasing too few goods" conditions for inflation for a long time now via the QE1, QE2... increases in the money supply since 2008. I was expecting inflation to kick in a long time ago (and happily positioned myself for it via a large fixed rate mortgage), and was surprised it was never appearing (until more recently).

It seems that part of why it took so long for inflation to kick in may have been a low "velocity of money" (degree to which money is being borrowed/spent/circulated, which has a sort of amplifying effect on the money supply) which may have now changed (in addition to the excessive money supply now being joined by a shortage of goods/labor).

There are other factors one could mention too, such as years of under building creating a housing shortage which combined with low mortgage rates has created the current housing bubble. The labor shortage (at least in terms of people wanting to work) is another factor - largely caused by covid, and people in the service industry either not wanting to work, or better off not working, or just sick of the increasingly rude/violent behavior of customers (maybe part of the general deteriorating mood of the country over last few years).

So, really a perfect storm of too much money meeting too few goods in a whole variety of areas, for a whole variety of reasons.

As far as the "dismal science", they say if you were to take all the world's economists and lay them end-to-end ... they would still not reach a conclusion. 😀

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Al Kowsky said:

All of us retired people would welcome a raise of 9-10%, but it sounds too good to be true 🙄.

I fondly remember the early 1980s, when you could buy triple-tax free municipal bonds paying about 13% interest, and ordinary bank deposits paid 5%. It seems hard to believe in retrospect. Now, we have inflation without the ability to offset it, at least in part, by earning high interest.

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21 minutes ago, DonnaML said:

I fondly remember the early 1980s, when you could buy triple-tax free municipal bonds paying about 13% interest, and ordinary bank deposits paid 5%. It seems hard to believe in retrospect. Now, we have inflation without the ability to offset it, at least in part, by earning high interest.

Very true. My World Savings CD paid 12% interest back in the 80's. Nowadays despite inflation the interest rate on money markets and CD's is extraordinarily low.

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Al Kowsky said:

...

I don't want to get political, but the shortage of affordable housing in New York City has absolutely nothing to do with that. Unless you're talking about the thousands of ultra-wealthy foreigners who buy luxury apartments here that are left empty most of the time!

Edited by Restitutor
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Now, here we have one of my personal favorites: an issue of Hormizd II, from the Gandhara mint. For reference, it's ANS Kushan 2341 and Cribb 36. This is a small little coin, weighing only 2.98g; the weight standards for this mint gradually reduced from about 6g to less than 1g over the course of the Kushano-Sassanian period. Now, I know it's a lot to take in, it's quite the spectacular coin of course; to summarize, the obverse depicts the bust of the king facing right, in his signature winged crown with a lotus bud feature above. In front of the bust is a name in Bactrian, ΜΗΖΗ; some speculate it to be the name of a mint official, but I find that questionable considering the long period of time in which coins were minted featuring that name. The reverse is a gracefully rendered fire altar, standard for the mint. Hormizd II's reign was a short one, and his coins are exceedingly rare; no examples of this type were in the Donum Burns collection, and the ANS has only one example. His other bronzes are only slightly more common, and only 3 examples are known of his dinars; however, this is obviously the more interesting type, given how everyone prefers bronze over gold. It is thought that he would go on to become Sassanian king, under the same name, as they both share the same crown; this is only speculation, however.459873591_ANS2341.png.cb6e841472413e87df33e96c9312a41f.png

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Al Kowsky said:

...

I know what you meant, and don't want to argue about it. This isn't the place. But as I said before, your first paragraph is irrelevant to the housing shortage and high rent prices in New York City. There's actually an interesting article in what I think is the current issue of The New Yorker on one of the reasons.

Edited by Restitutor
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Posted (edited)

I'd really hope we can self-police in a spirit of mutual goodwill, rather than resort to elaborate Draconian rules that imo simply encourage troublemakers to find the inevitable loopholes. I also think that if @Restitutorwere to close (but not delete!) this thread, with or without a mild admonishment, that wouldn't go amiss.

Edited by Phil Davis
Added "but not delete!"
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Posted · Administrator

Thanks @Phil Davis for the ping here. I appreciate everyones best efforts to keep the thread away from political discussions. Topics such as these, while technically in-scope can have a habit of veering into politics, and thank you all for keeping the focus as much as possible to coins. Really goes to show what a great community we have here! If things can revert back to a focus on the price/value of coins, I am happy to keep this thread open. However, if it veers back into the realm of politics I will have to lock it. I've done some clean-up in the thread as well. 

To help keep things on topic: I hope the value of coins drops for the ones I'm interested in bidding on, and skyrockets for the ones I own 😁

image.gif.afe9194722361248a8df55d6b5612366.gif

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It is not clear that the housing shortage is actually a shortage of housing units. At least on a national level. The number of housing units per capita in the US reached a peak in 2008 at 0.428.  It was 0.427 in March of this year. Don’t believe me.  Here is the data from the St. Louis fed.

EB4D0397-DCE5-4428-97D8-E10490996241.png.3c8120c76e69c926cb8127df43c39744.png

The red line adjusts for number of housing units per working age adult. You can see that is even more revealing. There are more units per working age adult today than in 2008.

It is true that there are not many houses “for sale.” There are also 16 million unoccupied homes in the US. Here is another chart from the Fed that shows vacant housing units for sale in the US.

D18884C2-1710-44C7-9B01-D6EB428187E2.png.d70dcb9e8827e625321744d339d58807.png

Vacant housing sales were already trending down after 2012 and then took a further nosedive in 2020 when the pandemic started. People have to move for a variety of reasons. Many people seem to have held on to their previous home as an investment when they were able to do so in a bid to maximize future returns in an upward trending market. The same thing happened in 2004-2006. We are starting to see some of these houses come on to the market over the last 3 months with inventory up in most major cities. RE investors also play a role in all this.

Maybe there are regional housing shortages in a real sense.  I don’t know. However, we have seen the whole “the housing market is under-built” before. A few from a quick google search.

”The reality is this: there is no housing bubble in this country... What we do have is a serious housing shortage and housing affordability crisis.” - WSJ (July 2005)

Talking about the continuing high demand for housing in 2005 CNN added “the supply of homes on the market is still near historically low levels.” CNN (Jan. 2005)

The above is relevant only in the sense that it illustrates some strange economic conditions going on right now. People have been on an emotional buying frenzy in all kinds of ways since mid-2020 that has created shortages that may or may not last. I think all asset classes are likely to take a hit as central banks tighten monetary policy. Coin prices will most likely continue to soften.

Edited by Curtisimo
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5 hours ago, Curtisimo said:

It is not clear that the housing shortage is actually a shortage of housing units. At least on a national level. The number of housing units per capita in the US reached a peak in 2008 at 0.428.  It was 0.427 in March of this year. Don’t believe me.  Here is the data from the St. Louis fed.

EB4D0397-DCE5-4428-97D8-E10490996241.png.3c8120c76e69c926cb8127df43c39744.png

The red line adjusts for number of housing units per working age adult. You can see that is even more revealing. There are more units per working age adult today than in 2008.

It is true that there are not many houses “for sale.” There are also 16 million unoccupied homes in the US. Here is another chart from the Fed that shows vacant housing units for sale in the US.

D18884C2-1710-44C7-9B01-D6EB428187E2.png.d70dcb9e8827e625321744d339d58807.png

Vacant housing sales were already trending down after 2012 and then took a further nosedive in 2020 when the pandemic started. People have to move for a variety of reasons. Many people seem to have held on to their previous home as an investment when they were able to do so in a bid to maximize future returns in an upward trending market. The same thing happened in 2004-2006. We are starting to see some of these houses come on to the market over the last 3 months with inventory up in most major cities. RE investors also play a role in all this.

Maybe there are regional housing shortages in a real sense.  I don’t know. However, we have seen the whole “the housing market is under-built” before. A few from a quick google search.

”The reality is this: there is no housing bubble in this country... What we do have is a serious housing shortage and housing affordability crisis.” - WSJ (July 2005)

Talking about the continuing high demand for housing in 2005 CNN added “the supply of homes on the market is still near historically low levels.” CNN (Jan. 2005)

The above is relevant only in the sense that it illustrates some strange economic conditions going on right now. People have been on an emotional buying frenzy in all kinds of ways since mid-2020 that has created shortages that may or may not last. I think all asset classes are likely to take a hit as central banks tighten monetary policy. Coin prices will most likely continue to soften.

Thanks Curtis, you helped prove my point 😉. I have no intention of getting into political squabbles with anyone on this website, but will support my assertions with facts, not innuendo. Many of the houses that are still unsold in this country have been bought by people who intended to "flip" these houses for a quick profit, & by doing so have exaggerated the value of real-estate nationwide. There is a real-estate bubble that will eventually pop or slowly deflate.

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The article I was thinking of was not in The New Yorker; it's in Slate: https://slate.com/business/2022/07/hotels-rental-market-housing-prices-shortage-solution.html . It's hard to dispute that the severe decline in inexpensive hotel rooms, including SROs, in New York and other cities, has contributed to the increase in homelessness.

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Affordable housing has long been an issue in the Bay Area.  High density units have been constructed near light rail lines, but even those units are expensive and unaffordable for teachers, police, and service workers.  It is a real dilemma, as adding more units adds to more congestion, public transportation notwithstanding, which is pretty poor in the South Bay.

The ongoing battle in Cupertino is the development of the former Vallco Mall area.  It's been a hole in ground for many years as political wrangling and legal actions proceeded at a regal pace.  Now it seems that construction of a mixed use structure, with a park and trails on top, is going to proceed.

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As for ancient collectors, I have been wondering as I send out envelopes.  What state is the best to live in to buy ancient coins online?  The amount of money people pay for a coin varies so much from state to state based on internet sales tax.  I don't know if the VCOINS people have to do this, but eBay automatically takes out the money and I never see it except for the invoice I get a hint and it is wildly different.  So top states to live in as an ancient collector?

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