Sobering auction for those in hope of price appreciation . NY International.

[El Cazador]

3 hours ago, Nvb said:

For what it’s worth, I already wish I had bid more aggressively on this coin. A high price for a common issue, but among the finest examples you’ll ever come across 

https://live.spink.com/lots/view/4-8GY2NJ/lucania-thurium-ar-stater-400-350-bc

 

 

 

Unfortunately it had a fairly visible die shift, I personally passed on it

[Deinomenid]

7 hours ago, El Cazador said:

I strongly disagree here, the lots I was bidding on - brought In astronomical pricess, way above what I would expect coins of sub-par quality would go for… only a few Tetradrachms And didrachms were solid… but boy, I was wrong - prices were insane- i lost all my targets and was only competitive on 2 coins out of 10 on my watchlist 

Re strongly disagreeing - who with? I'm  not trying to say  prices were  high  or low. They are what they are. I don't think I even offered a view on whether they were high.  Just that he'd lost a lot of money  over  half a century in real terms. Which in  investments is hard to do (plenty manage it nonetheless, but it should be hard),  not in hobbies, and this served to remind me that this  interest is wholly the latter. And anything else is icing on the old cake.

In fact, if prices were astronomically high  it makes  his losses all the worse. 😀

[Phil Davis]

As others have said, it's challenging to draw useful conclusions from this particular sale. Spink is no doubt still a renowned name--true numismatic "royalty"--but all in all royalty ain't what it used to be. The fact is that these days Spink is a second (or third!) rate venue for the sale of ancient coins. I would have expected this collection to do considerably better had it been dispersed over, say, a series of CNG  or Roma e-sales.

Edited January 16, 2023 by Phil Davis

[SteveJBrinkman]

14 hours ago, idesofmarch01 said:

Even in the short period I've been collecting ancient coins, it's been my observation that commonly available, middle quality coins rarely, if ever, benefit predictably from the effects of inflation or appreciation while coins in visibly better condition than, say, 90% of the same type can appreciate astronomically.  

This has been my observation as well.  The finest coins in terms of condition, and even moreso, style, have tended to appreciate significantly over a few years.  Nice coins, (just nice) even relatively scarce nice coins have unpredictable performance.   In my collection, I have a few lower grade coins in my specialty area that are very rare.  I expect to lose money on all or most of them.  This is ok with me.  But I unapologetically get the most pleasure from the finest examples in my collection, so this is where I focus most of my resources.

[Edessa]

2 hours ago, Deinomenid said:

Re strongly disagreeing - who with? I'm  not trying to say  prices were  high  or low. They are what they are. I don't think I even offered a view on whether they were high.  Just that he'd lost a lot of money  over  half a century in real terms. Which in  investments is hard to do (plenty manage it nonetheless, but it should be hard),  not in hobbies, and this served to remind me that this  interest is wholly the latter. And anything else is icing on the old cake.

In fact, if prices were astronomically high  it makes  his losses all the worse. 😀

On the other hand, he could have bought a boat:)

[idesofmarch01]

18 hours ago, Deinomenid said:

Oh, and I tried to rationalize it  by saying many purchases were  in Swiss francs so  that was a great asset to  own,  but even  in  Switzerland  the CHF has fallen  in real  terms  by 70% over 50 years. 2.5% annual inflation even there apparently over the period.

Same nominal price as 1982   https://live.spink.com/lots/view/4-8GY29T/kings-of-lydia-kroisos-c-56453-55039-bc-ar-hemistater-sardes

 Same price as 1969!   https://live.spink.com/lots/view/4-8GY2C3/caria-rhodes-ar-didrachm-c-340-316-bc

Halved in real terms https://live.spink.com/lots/view/4-8GY2D7/lesbos-bi-stater-c-550-450-bc

Same nominal price as 1974 https://live.spink.com/lots/view/4-8GY2M6/lucania-poseidonia-ar-third-stater-c-530-500-bc-excessively-rare

DOWN in nominal terms since 1969 https://live.spink.com/lots/view/4-8GY2DW/ionia-ephesos-ar-tetradrachm-c-320-300-bc-mnesarchos-magistrate

Halved in nominal terms  since  1975 https://live.spink.com/lots/view/4-8GY2GV/ionia-samos-ar-drachm-c-408-380-bc-hegesianax-magistrate

I'm  not cherrypicking a few extremes, and some did ok but most  have lost money in real terms over a very long period.

 

But even  ones that appeared to have done well,  like this

https://live.spink.com/lots/view/4-8GY2HU/lycia-phaselis-ar-stater-c-250-220-bc-aristarchos-magistrate

were actually flat in real terms.

I decided it would be interesting to calculate the inflation-adjusted amount, in U.S. dollars, of the original purchase price for each of these coins, and compare those purchases prices to the Spink hammer prices for each of them.

To do this, for those coins purchased in CHF, I started by calculating the equivalent "Purch. USD" from the CHF/USD exchange rate from the table here: https://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/etc/USDpages.pdf

I then calculated the inflation-adjusted purchase amount in USD at the end of 2022 ("Today USD") using a chart and formula that I created from this table of U.S. inflation rates: https://www.multpl.com/inflation/table/by-year

Finally, I subtracted the inflation-adjusted purchase price from the Spink hammer price to get the gain or loss on each coin.  Here's the result:

While the results are all over the board, very few of these coins kept up with or exceeded inflation.

Thoughts?

 

Edited January 16, 2023 by idesofmarch01

[Deinomenid]

1 hour ago, idesofmarch01 said:

While the results are all over the board, very few of these coins kept up or exceeded inflation.

Thoughts?

 

Thoughts- it's definitely a hobby!

If our chap  had  put his  money  in the SMI (Swiss equity market index, and  predecessor) since 1978 (roughly weighting his purchases by year)  instead he'd have made - drum roll- 21 times his money!

Ahh, hindsight.

The main  upside for me  is  when my estate (estatelet) calculates the costs I won't be around to hear the grumbling.

 

 

[DonnaML]

6 hours ago, Phil Davis said:

As others have said, it's challenging to draw useful conclusions from this particular sale. Spink is no doubt still a renowned name--true numismatic "royalty"--but all in all royalty ain't what it used to be. The fact is that these days Spink is a second (or third!) rate venue for the sale of ancient coins. I would have expected this collection to do considerably better had it been dispersed over, say, a series of CNG  or Roma e-sales.

I think Spink is still thought of as first-rate in the area of British coins, in which it's been a prestigious name (and authority) since the 19th century. Especially since it took over Seaby's publications. And of course it's still known as a publisher of ancient coin books, but I don't know how much its regular personnel have to do with writing or editing them.

Edited January 16, 2023 by DonnaML

[savitale]

I found this site to calculate the value of 4000 CHF back then to CHF in 2023. It calculates to 9,187 CHF in today's CHF. Certainly more, but not as dramatic as one might think. I haven't gone through any effort to validate that the result is correct. But I could imagine someone paying that price for the coin in a private transaction back then, when valuation data was a more closely held secret, and perhaps the availability of the type was more limited.  

[AussieCollector]

As a friend once said, hobbies are almost always grabbing a bunch of $100 bills, snipping them into pieces, and throwing them in the air.

I think with our hobby, this is less the case as coins will hold most of their value. But if you're viewing them as investments, you're probably "doing it wrong".

That said, plenty of money can be made, especially if you get into the middle guy business.

And of course, there are exceptions. Not that it's exactly ancient, but I bought a Seville 2 Escudos cob coin for $780 Euros in 2016. It is now worth $3000 Euros at a minimum (probably more).

[kirispupis]

First, as has already been stated, this is a hobby - not something where I intend to profit.

Complicating matters with speculating on coins is that the market changes. For example, many of the coins I'm acquiring for my current collection are rare. When I look them up in ACSearch, I see that many were selling in the range of $2k-$3k around 2000-2003. Many of these coins are now going for 10% of that or less.

I've confirmed this with dealers who have been selling for a while. Nowadays, people want bling - not rarities. Personally, that works just fine for me. Had this been 20 years earlier there would be no way I could build my collection.

Perhaps someday the market will turn and my collection will be worth a small fortune. It doesn't really matter because I still wouldn't sell, though it would give me some personal satisfaction. 🙂 

[Limes]

Auctions don't make sense. To a certain degree, you can predict the outcome, but that's about it. I don't know Spink, whether it is a renowed auction house or not. But I do know that - at least when it comes to my coins - I will not make a profit. When these will sell in 20, 30, maybe even 40 years or something, the possible profit will be minimal due to inflation. 

But that's not why I'm in it, as others have mentioned, it's a hobby and its for the enjoyment of it. 

Another point I'd like to make, is that to think about profit, one has to take into account the various fees/additional costs. Comparing hammer prices is not the whole story. Buyers fees these days are 20%+ and for not all that special coins, there are sellers fees as well. And don't forget shipment costs, taxes, costs for using paypal, creditcard, etc.etc. So, to really make a profit, a 'normal' coins would maybe have to sell for maybe 150 - 170% of the previous hammer price. An example. I recently sold 11 coins via Naumann. The selling fee is 10%, the grade of the coins is aVF max (nothing special). I register the hammer price (or retail price) in my system for all my coins, but do not include fees. The total sum for these 11 coins, was 1075 EUR ex fees. The coins sold for a total of 1210. Profit? No. Including various fees, I once bought the 11 coins for approx 1397 (30%) EUR, and the seller fee and shipment totalled 180 EUR. So my total loss was actually 367 EUR. I can imagine for higher grade coins or special collections, seller fees are disgarded, and hammer prices may be high enough to make a profit. But, although these 11 coins are from the distinguished 'Limes collection', this is not, nor will ever be the case for my coins. And I'm totally fine with that. 
 

[robinjojo]

Price or value appreciation, or the lack of it, is a secondary consideration for me, at best.  I've been collecting coins and other stuff since 1979, actually with agates going back to my teen years in the mid sixties.  I've seen price spikes and downturns over that time.  I don't know if my collection has really appreciated much over that time, and it is not really a concern, since I am on my own and will likely leave the collection for others to deal with. 

One thing I believe applies to coin prices is that over an extended time the average price will increase.  That Chinese auto dollar that I posted last week was purchased for $400 in the late 1980s.  Now they are selling for around $7,000 or so.  Could that price crash?  You bet, especially if the Chinese economy tanks.  Will the value sink to $400?  Not terribly likely.  

Another case: the ubiquitous Athenian owls.  There's a virtual ocean of these classical standardized owls out there, and yet the demand seems relatively stable.  These "Morgan dollars" of the ancient world have wide appeal, and while prices seem to be softening, especially for average mid grade examples, the floor remains essentially intact.

The only scenario that I see for a complete price collapse for ancient and other coins is a 1930s style economic depression, a deflationary cycle on steroids.  That could happen if international economic developments, driven by war, climate and politics lead to a catastrophic crash in demand for goods and services, just the opposite of what we're experiencing now with inflationary trends, which seem to be moderating now.   

I do think that consigning coins to the right auction house is very important.  Commissions vary, as does expertise and customer service for both consignors and bidders.  Cataloging is also very important, along with coverage, i.e. the ability to publicize the auction and attract bidders.  

[DonnaML]

41 minutes ago, robinjojo said:

I do think that consigning coins to the right auction house is very important.  Commissions vary, as does expertise and customer service for both consignors and bidders.  Cataloging is also very important, along with coverage, i.e. the ability to publicize the auction and attract bidders.  

For those of us in the USA, there are more domestic choices than ever for consigning ancient coins, beyond the best-known US houses like CNG, Stack's Bowers, Heritage, etc., now that auction companies like Roma and Leu have established US offices. Shipping coins abroad for consignment seems more complicated than I (or my son, if and when it comes to that!) might ever want to undertake.

Edited January 17, 2023 by DonnaML

[idesofmarch01]

21 minutes ago, DonnaML said:

For those of us in the USA, there are more domestic choices than ever for consigning ancient coins, beyond the best-known US houses like CNG, Stack's Bowers, Heritage, etc., now that auction companies like Roma and Leu have established US offices. Shipping coins abroad for consignment seems more complicated than I (or my son, if and when it comes to that!) might ever want to undertake.

I would also point out that "NAC and Shanna Schmidt [have] join[ed] forces to found NAC USA" (from a recent website announcement).

[kirispupis]

2 hours ago, idesofmarch01 said:

I would also point out that "NAC and Shanna Schmidt [have] join[ed] forces to found NAC USA" (from a recent website announcement).

So, I wonder how that will work. Will they just triple the starting bids? I'm trying to figure out how you combine an auction with premium coins (that admittedly hammer for what they should) with perhaps the most overpriced seller on VCoins.

[DonnaML]

1 hour ago, kirispupis said:

So, I wonder how that will work. Will they just triple the starting bids? I'm trying to figure out how you combine an auction with premium coins (that admittedly hammer for what they should) with perhaps the most overpriced seller on VCoins.

I was thinking the same thing. For the most part, her VCoins prices make that Leu FPL look like Gimbels basement from my childhood. (Most of you probably are too young to remember Gimbels!)

Edited January 18, 2023 by DonnaML

[idesofmarch01]

15 hours ago, kirispupis said:

So, I wonder how that will work. Will they just triple the starting bids? I'm trying to figure out how you combine an auction with premium coins (that admittedly hammer for what they should) with perhaps the most overpriced seller on VCoins.

My personal impression is that the NAC - Shanna Schmidt association is primarily to benefit U.S. collectors who win coins at NAC's Swiss auctions.  Those coins will be shipped from NAC Switzerland to NAC Chicago (Schmidt), and then directly to the buyer, thus avoiding the burden of the buyer having to arrange for overseas shipping and customs clearance.

[kirispupis]

2 hours ago, idesofmarch01 said:

My personal impression is that the NAC - Shanna Schmidt association is primarily to benefit U.S. collectors who win coins at NAC's Swiss auctions.  Those coins will be shipped from NAC Switzerland to NAC Chicago (Schmidt), and then directly to the buyer, thus avoiding the burden of the buyer having to arrange for overseas shipping and customs clearance.

I see. That indeed is a useful service. I wonder how much Schmidt will charge for it - $2k per coin? 🙂

[robinjojo]

I've been looking at Shanna Schmidt's listing of owls while visiting VCoins.  The prices are indeed high, but I think they are more or less in line with what Harlan Berk would charge for comparable coins, generally speaking.  For me this is high-end, being more of a "Woolworth's" level buyer most of the time.  

I've never participated in a Swiss auction.  The Swiss franc has almost always been a strong currency, and my focus on Roma precludes racking up more and more currency conversion fees, to say nothing of buyer's fees.  With a fixed income, I need to think (when I do) strategically, concentrating on the field I am interested in, and not flying off in a hundred directions elsewhere.  

 

[DonnaML]

39 minutes ago, robinjojo said:

more or less in line with what Harlan Berk would charge for comparable coins, generally speaking. 

Isn't Harlan Berk her father? In my experience, though, her prices (at least for Roman coins) are considerably higher than those charged by HJB.

[kapphnwn]

Auctions are at best crap shoots. Over the last 7 or more years I have been selling a rather substantial number of coins. Somewhere in the thousands.  I can say that selling a collection is as much of a learning curve as buying.  Overall I have been happy with the results. However I will say that with one caveat I never kept track of what I spent on any particular coin. 

  I can say that there are many reasons why a coin will either do well in an auction or completely die. I have had both. 

1. Second fiddle My coin was paired up with a visually superior specimen. That coin was languishing , so mine did even worse. However there was a variation. My coin though not as well centered had a stronger image and a much lower estimate. It did better than the other coin. 

2. Ugly picture. One of my coins suffered from this a lot. I knew immediately it would die and it did horribly,

3. Times change The majority of collectors active today probably don't remember that three major events that seriously affected ancient coin collecting occurred starting in the early 1980's and ended in the early 2000's. These were A the advent of metal defectors B. The fall of the Com Block and C the advent of the internet. A and B brought vast numbers of new coins on to the market with many of them being in extremely high grade, however C meant that these coins could enter the marketplace at a much lower price point previously not possible. Prior to the Internet I paid roughly $100 for any coin I could find in a FPL. Now on the internet I could get 2 even 3 comparable coins for the same price. Even more remarkable If I am on line I had the chance to be the very first person to see the coin and buy it, something that was denied to me when I got FPLs through the mail. The net result was for many coins the prices tanked.  Another byproduct was that as this flood of new coins hit the market collectors could become more discriminating. 

4, Tastes change  One feature that has been taking hold over the last decade has been the rise in importance of pedigree (provenance). This is a fairly new phenomenon and at this juncture is having a strong impact on prices, . Prior to this pedigrees were only of minor curiosity and generally did not affect pricing all that greatly. In fact unless the coin was part of a noteworthy collection the pedigree was generally ignored. 

Back in 2017 at one of the auctions associated with the NYINC I picked up this coin. 

Syracuse Ar Tetradrachm 450-440 BC Obv Charioteer driving slow quadriga right  Rv Head of Arethusa right surrounded by four dolphins, Boehringer 515 17.10 grms 25 mm Photo by W. Hansen

At the time the only information I could obtain was that it was formally owned by Tom Cederlind and was previously in a Goldberg's auction the previous year. Last year as I was searching through the Newman Numismatic Portal I found this 

Numismatic Fine Arts Auction XXXII Lot 13 June 10 1993. NFA is a premium auction house and was probably the most important Numismatic firm in North America at the time.  I would have assumed that any coin that had graced one of their auctions would have been duly noted but  that was not the case. I was quite pleased with myself I moved the sticks back over 20 years However then I was going through the RNumis site and found this

Ars Classica Auction 17 Lot 199 October 3 1934  NFA usually referenced pedigrees when they knew of them but they missed this one. Again  probably because the coin was deemed to be not that special, 

  I was composing this for some time, To answer @DonnaMLquestion. Yes Harlan is her father. I do not know exactly what to say on this matter but Shanna and her father are independent of each other. 

Edited January 18, 2023 by kapphnwn

[robinjojo]

20 minutes ago, DonnaML said:

Isn't Harlan Berk her father? In my experience, though, her prices (at least for Roman coins) are considerably higher than those charged by HJB.

Yes, she is Harlan Berk's daughter. 

I really don't follow Roman coinage in general.  Her owl prices are high, maybe a little higher than what I see one HJB's buy-bid lists, but not by a whole lot. 

Now, having said this, my observation is most limited by the new style owls she has listed in the past.  Those new style prices, not only in her case but also with other sellers, can vary widely, almost like archaic owls, probably due to a smaller population compared to classical standardized owls, plus a wide variation in quality of strike, condition and quality of the dies.

[Phil Davis]

2 hours ago, DonnaML said:

Isn't Harlan Berk her father? In my experience, though, her prices (at least for Roman coins) are considerably higher than those charged by HJB.

Yes, and yes.